Anhydrous Ammonia prices

[andy r]

I only apply Ammonia in the spring. Year end prepay is coming up here in the next week or two. I know one of the largest fertilizer conferences in the US was just held where retailers, wholesalers, and fertilizer producers get together and make deals. Just wondered if anyone had an idea where prices are going to go this spring? Full service anhydrous was $1600 a ton here a week or two ago and it had to go on now. Someone who use to work in anhydrous wholesale thought they would try to hold the price up through the spring. This year it sounds like if you pay for it with prepay the company's are going to make you sign a document that says you must take it in the spring at the high price you paid. That way in the unlikely event that ammonia goes down in price you are not going to be able to back out and buy it cheaper somewhere else. We have had $1000 a ton ammonia before. Retired fertilizer wholesaler says it probably should be $500 higher with high natural gas, etc., but he says the other $500 increase is just plain due to greed and trying to grab some of the share of high priced corn. With P and K flirting with $1000 a ton soybeans might be my best option.

 

[DoubleO7]

Everybody want a bigger slice of all that free stimulus money!!

 

[rustred]

its the same B.S. here in Alberta. up about 3 times the amount since spring. i can also bet money there is no way it will be down in the spring,... the sky is the limit! farmers get no breaks , it those greedy company's grabbing it all with both hands. they get a sniff the farmer is getting a better price for his commodities and then they are there like vultures! our barley was up to 8.50 per bushel for march delivery. i have sold barley in the 80's for 97 cents per bushel. so i sure cant see grain prices going back down with these crazy input costs. plus land prices are going nuts too. one quarter sold in the area for 1.5 million and several others for 800 thou. so how can a person pay for this land ?

 

[NY 986]

The trouble is everybody will decide to plant soybeans driving down the price and increasing the likely that the supply will bottleneck in distribution. The local fertilizer dealer years ago warned that greed was going to cut a lot of throats and although no longer with us he may be proven right.

 

[coonie minnie]

Natural gas futures have dropped a bunch in the last month... for what that is worth.

 

[Geo-TH,In]

Fertilizer prices were up long before stimulus.
Stimulus wouldn't buy much of anything, pocket change.
Nitrogen is linked to natural gas demand.

 

[showcrop]

(quoted from post at 18:02:12 12/10/21) its the same B.S. here in Alberta. up about 3 times the amount since spring. i can also bet money there is no way it will be down in the spring,... the sky is the limit! farmers get no breaks , it those greedy company's grabbing it all with both hands. they get a sniff the farmer is getting a better price for his commodities and then they are there like vultures! our barley was up to 8.50 per bushel for march delivery. i have sold barley in the 80's for 97 cents per bushel. so i sure cant see grain prices going back down with these crazy input costs. plus land prices are going nuts too. one quarter sold in the area for 1.5 million and several others for 800 thou. so how can a person pay for this land ?

Rustred I am probably wrong but I seem to remember there being a few years not long ago where crops were extremely good and prices were very strong. Maybe farmers need to build stronger coops and negotiate with the energy companies and fertilizer wholesalers to get better prices in times like these and agree to pay premiums to the energy companies when the crop prices are high. Could you keep yourself from grabbing with both hands when prices are good?

 

[ss55]

Short term adjustments during short term supply disruptions tends to be the best way to cope with spiking commodity prices.

Vertical integration rarely pays off long term because commodity prices tend to be self-stabilizing. High profits attracts new competition. Too many businesses panic and buy capacity at peak prices that does not come online until after prices have returned to normal.

 

[NY 986]

Not sure of what you are saying but here in the East there are extremely few retailers of AA. I can only think of one within 50 miles of me. I am very sure that he will make every effort to hold the line on high prices. As to short term counter moves to deal with what may be short term conditions, yes, that does not always work as to intended long term results.

 

[DoubleO7]

(quoted from post at 08:26:06 12/11/21) Fertilizer prices were up long before stimulus.
Stimulus wouldn't buy much of anything, pocket change.
Nitrogen is linked to natural gas demand.

 

[Traditional Farmer]

Shouldn't come as a big shock that these and all companies are in business to make the most profit for their owners and shareholders.Whether anyone deals with them is up to the individual.If you're at their (NON) mercy you might want to review your business model.

 

[NY 986]

From what I understand production of AA is almost continuous throughout a calendar year. So I am guessing that there is already product in the system at a high rate of cost. I believe that every measure will be taken so that high priced volume is sold and distributed at a retail price that protects those in the business. If AA is retailing at 1,000 dollars per ton currently then there would be bedlam if AA were to drop in price drastically say a few hundred dollars per ton by spring. Of course fall application is almost unheard of here in the East. So the Midwestern farmers who already have it in the soil can console themselves in that they had no choice at the time.

 

[NY 986]

Historically, AA is a comparatively cheap source of N compared to liquid or dry sources. But anyone who farms today knows that you have to always do the math after talking to the retailers to know what the best options are.

 

[caterpillar guy]

A good bit of it is the inflation being created by our fine spend thrifts in the Washington department. Spending worse than drunken sailors has created a lot of inflation already and going higher daily.

 

[redforlife]

I asked friend (works at seed and fertilizer outlet supplier) yesterday what current price of AA was. He said $1,450 a ton.
I only own 2 fields of cropland. Through my my normal crop rotation I'll have wheat and beans next year. I did NOT change my rotation because of AA costs. It really did just work out that way. But, I am not complaining. I won't have that luck of the draw for 23. I venture to guess I'll get a taste of it then. I don't foresee things getting any better out of you know who. The track record laid down so far, has NOT been good.

 

[coonie minnie]

Agree. I was laughing at the fools putting it on in fall, with weather too warm for it to stay put... It's record high, so we are gonna waste it now while we still can... Brilliant move. And we wonder why farmers get a bad wrap from an environmental standpoint!!!

Fertilizer seems to be the agricultural equivalent of toilet paper to the general public last year.

 

[fixerupper]

Coonie I agree with you. In my neck of the woods the AA was going in right and left. A local newspaper editor who has a big hang up about nitrogen in our drainage tile will have a heyday next summer. One farmer I know was squalking about $1000 anhydrous but he was running day and night to get it applied.