Cattle herds are at their lowest in 75 years.

[Ray,IN]

That statement was issued by the USFDA as reported by https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/2026/02/02/cattle-inventory-hits-a-75-year-low/
This will require years of rebuilding herds due to the nature of the business. This means even higher prices for retail beef in grocery stores for the next few years.
In my area there is a large growth of direct selling by cattle ranches, many have their own processing facility.

 

[Fawteen]

Fortunately for my wallet - and unfortunately for my taste buds - I can no longer tolerate beef, or red meat in general for that matter. I can get away with small portions of very lean stuff like venison or moose, but even that is a ...ummmmm.... "crap shoot".

 

[da.bees]

It's always something. Last month "they" claimed high fuel prices had crushed our economy.
Isn't it funny how no one belly aches over latte prices at Starbucks.
Mom used to tell me "it's an ill wind that doesn't blow good for someone".
Well I believe I hear the ill wind. Our herd is strong as ever ,we have plenty of pasture and hay land, what else could we wish for?

 

[sms]

I understand due to the lack of snow/precipitation in western areas that ranchers are advised to cut herd size and crop farms should plant less this year.

 

[rrlund]

I'll never expand again. At 71, why would I? Work harder just to be worse off? Do I look stupid? I hope we've all learned what the oil companies and all of the other monopolies that are our suppliers have. They put profit over quantity and produce just enough to make their product available, but with a perceived shortage to keep prices high. Wouldn't it be nice if all farmers and ranchers would come to their senses and do the same thing? If production does increase enough to drive prices down, full retirement will be in my immediate future. I'm not going the spend the money that I've banked with these high prices just to support what would just be an expensive hobby. Would you spend more money on gas to get to work than you get paid? Especially at my age? No, you wouldn't and with a whole bunch of ranchers and farmers being my age, I don't think they will either. Get used to it.

 

[Fixingfarmer]

If “they” don’t think that everyone with a breeding herd is looking at keeping 10 percent more back with the prices. This goes in waves. There will be “too much” beef in the marketplace within 5 years and everyone will have too many cows. I don’t doubt that there is a bit of a shortage while that happens but it’s a free market everyone seems to think that’s bad but this is what it does. Messing with it is how you get the Argentinian beef. purchase a juicy pork chop now for a couple years if the price isn’t too your liking and the demand will level out accordingly.

The direct processing boom from small scale to large is what’s been different in cattle vs what we lost in hogs and chickens. Control much like the ethanol plant is much better local.

For so many years cattle farmers struggled and I was so glad we only had 30 cows but now that there’s enough money in it to repair the fence everyone whines about the price. It’s not the only thing that has gone up just the only ag commodity that isn’t an input that has kept up with inflation. Lord knows the fertilizer salesman kept up. Corn and beans didn’t do that.

 

[Princeton Bill]

In my mind the current situation with the beef industry proves that the National Farmers Organization (NFO) back in the 60s was always right. They were big champions for producers, i.e. farmers, controlling supply to set the prices they received for the goods produced. They said the farmer didn't need government help, processor help or any other help if they controlled the quantity of goods available on the market. The big flaw in that position was the well known independence of farmers. Somebody would always plant more corn or beans, raise more pigs or chickens when the markets were good. Consequently, the markets would fall. Those types of products were and still are easy to increase or decrease the quantity being produced. Beef is a different story. Since you can't increase the cow herd significantly in six months or so the supply remains lower than demand and prices are not coming down anytime soon. The law of supply and demand is still in effect. I guess my dad supporting NFO over his Farm Bureau neighbors was somewhat correct.

 

[Texasmark]

I'll never expand again. At 71, why would I? Work harder just to be worse off? Do I look stupid? I hope we've all learned what the oil companies and all of the other monopolies that are our suppliers have. They put profit over quantity and produce just enough to make their product available, but with a perceived shortage to keep prices high. Wouldn't it be nice if all farmers and ranchers would come to their senses and do the same thing? If production does increase enough to drive prices down, full retirement will be in my immediate future. I'm not going the spend the money that I've banked with these high prices just to support what would just be an expensive hobby. Would you spend more money on gas to get to work than you get paid? Especially at my age? No, you wouldn't and with a whole bunch of ranchers and farmers being my age, I don't think they will either. Get used to it.

I've been retired for 20+ years. I kept my operation as it was for another 10ish years then downsized in equipment size and area covered and in 2014 I decided that being in a corral with a 3000# bull with an attitude wasn't a good idea any longer and sold off my herd getting $3,200 for my Grade, 3 year old, Brangus Bull at the Durant, Ok. sale barn (big surprise but I took it).

Today I only do hay and machine work for neighbors on my road. Keeps me with something to do when the weather permits and keeps the Ad-valorem taxes on my homestead very reasonable. Looking down the road I thought about moving into something that didn't require a lot of tractor work. Decided on Honey Bee production. That started out with a bang and shortly wound up in a bust when the insects (which were totally unknown originally) wiped out my hive inhabitants and their supply of honey and comb.

 

[NY 986]

The trouble is the economy is under stress. Many consumers are juggling pins in terms of increased fuel, electric (rate increase), taxes, and food to name a few. The pins have gotten so heavy that they are now hitting the ground. When that happens consumers re-evaluate their priorities. Beef with its high cost per pound will be a target for change. Pork used to be considered a food for the poor but with BBQ sauces and so forth pork has become a desired meal along with chicken. Maybe meat dollars will shift back to beef once the cost decreases considerably but will producers be able to offer it and make a profit? Probably not. Will tastes change back? Look at the ad campaigns over the past few decades and how it appeals to consumers to kick the boring beef habit.

 

[B. White]

I think many like me have a price they are willing to pay and what is available now is past that point. I bought some beef for burgers marked down that was cheaper than I've seen in a year or two. I used to eat ribeyes regularly, but thick pork chops will work. The last two times I made chili I used my same recipe except substituted pork loin and it was good. I've got good enough at frying cheap chicken leg quarters that grandkids would rather have it than about anything. I'll usually make beef stew to stretch mixing some in some meals, which they also all like.

I had intended to grow my own when I moved into this place a few years ago, but the math doesn't make sense to me considering how much fencing would need to be added for the 15-20 years max I would get out of it. I've bought some beef from someone near me that raises it to sell and he said during the nnalert shortages for processors here he figured out he could ship them up to Amish country and feed to finish up there was cheaper and they process when ready and he goes and picks up a refrigerated load every so often. I also talked to a couple of neighbors who had sold what they had mostly due to mobility and not moving fast enough to get out of the way when they need to. I remember me and my father having to do most of the work at my grandparents when they got to that age. Sometimes it doesn't make sense to do what you would like when you face reality of aging.

 

[Not db4600]

Oh so many factors at play.
A recent history of rangeland drought and throw in a harsh winter. The 2020 helped to shift food choices and according to ag radio and beef reports the current prices have not stemmed demands. US beef is a good product and consumers are still buying.

Select genetics is producing nnalert specific replacements for dairy and shorting the market of cull calves.

$1.5xx market calves are not promoting keeping them back. That said those calves are going somewhere whether it is filtering into dairy or feed lots I can’t say, but I doubt the veal market has that much demand.

Add in SA screw worm and it all has bearing on the market.

Ultimately the herd is easier contracted then built back.

 

[B. White]

Decided on Honey Bee production. That started out with a bang and shortly wound up in a bust when the insects (which were totally unknown originally) wiped out my hive inhabitants and their supply of honey and comb.

My wife has tried bees a couple of times and enjoyed it, but it is another expensive hobby (IMO) considering the time it takes to stay on top of any problems and that they can take off and be gone. I think she finally has given up on it. She has some friends who are very successful with them, but I think they spend a lot of their time on it.

I added muscadines this year to an area I was originally going to fence in for pasture. I would rather mess with what little they need than deal with bees and told her I can always trade for honey if I want with less risk, since they thrive around here and won't swarm and take off on me.

 

[Phill Tibbetts]

My wife has tried bees a couple of times and enjoyed it, but it is another expensive hobby (IMO) considering the time it takes to stay on top of any problems and that they can take off and be gone. I think she finally has given up on it. She has some friends who are very successful with them, but I think they spend a lot of their time on it.

I added muscadines this year to an area I was originally going to fence in for pasture. I would rather mess with what little they need than deal with bees and told her I can always trade for honey if I want with less risk, since they thrive around here and won't swarm and take off on me.

I think many like me have a price they are willing to pay and what is available now is past that point. I bought some beef for burgers marked down that was cheaper than I've seen in a year or two. I used to eat ribeyes regularly, but thick pork chops will work. The last two times I made chili I used my same recipe except substituted pork loin and it was good. I've got good enough at frying cheap chicken leg quarters that grandkids would rather have it than about anything. I'll usually make beef stew to stretch mixing some in some meals, which they also all like.

I had intended to grow my own when I moved into this place a few years ago, but the math doesn't make sense to me considering how much fencing would need to be added for the 15-20 years max I would get out of it. I've bought some beef from someone near me that raises it to sell and he said during the nnalert shortages for processors here he figured out he could ship them up to Amish country and feed to finish up there was cheaper and they process when ready and he goes and picks up a refrigerated load every so often. I also talked to a couple of neighbors who had sold what they had mostly due to mobility and not moving fast enough to get out of the way when they need to. I remember me and my father having to do most of the work at my grandparents when they got to that age. Sometimes it doesn't make sense to do what you would like when you face reality of aging.

I only buy beef and mostly Hamburger when it is on sale. We have a Hannaford chain of stores here that regularly have hamburger on sale for$2.99 a pound. I buy 10 lbs and shrink wrap and freeze it. Pork is less than half the price of beef and we like it so we eat more of that too. We keep watching the sales like we always have.

 

[ss55]

That statement was issued by the USFDA as reported by https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/2026/02/02/cattle-inventory-hits-a-75-year-low/
This will require years of rebuilding herds due to the nature of the business. This means even higher prices for retail beef in grocery stores for the next few years.
In my area there is a large growth of direct selling by cattle ranches, many have their own processing facility.

When the administration planned to lower beef import tariffs to give US consumers a little relief on sky high beef prices didn't the beef industry lobby strongly to prevent that from happening?

Was that because too many over paid when they bought $350 plus/CWT feeders and do not want to loose money from that bad decision, or was it simply because they were not finished price gouging the US consumers yet?

Feeder Cattle PRICE Today | Feeder Cattle Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Feeder Cattle per Ounce | Markets Insider

Feeder Cattle Price: Get all information on the Price of Feeder Cattle including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.

markets.businessinsider.com

When any US industry cannot meet domestic demand, why not open import restrictions? It could be over a decade before US beef stocks recover.

 

[Tony in SD]

In my area the acres of pasture have decreased significantly since I was a kid when everybody had cattle. Today, my farm is still about 50/50 pasture to grain but if my grain farming tenants would have their way it would be closer to 20/80 as most farms are now days

 

[Ray,IN]

IMO the largest single factor was the mad cow disease years and the ensuing regulations. However that was a short era of the 75 yr decline.
Herds will have to grow naturally, instead of buying at $4,000 for one young cow with calf by her side. Then there's the subject Tony spoke of, pasture land and the lack thereof today. I've seen feedlots in the S and W with hundreds of feeders on completely bare ground, the cattle never see a blade of grass. (and meat quality is suffering)
I see on TV every day where a farm in ILL is being broken up into lots and auctioned; most of it appears to be good, flat tillable ground, so there goes the grain supply for those feed lots, and what is available sells for high prices by the middlemen, the farmer doesn't benefit much
I'm a champion of maintaining family farms, but it totally depends upon the young generation and how they are raised.

 

[NY 986]

IMO the largest single factor was the mad cow disease years and the ensuing regulations. However that was a short era of the 75 yr decline.
Herds will have to grow naturally, instead of buying at $4,000 for one young cow with calf by her side. Then there's the subject Tony spoke of, pasture land and the lack thereof today. I've seen feedlots in the S and W with hundreds of feeders on completely bare ground, the cattle never see a blade of grass. (and meat quality is suffering)
I see on TV every day where a farm in ILL is being broken up into lots and auctioned; most of it appears to be good, flat tillable ground, so there goes the grain supply for those feed lots, and what is available sells for high prices by the middlemen, the farmer doesn't benefit much
I'm a champion of maintaining family farms, but it totally depends upon the young generation and how they are raised.

Most young people are being taught to exploit for today versus building for tomorrow.

 

[Ray,IN]

When the administration planned to lower beef import tariffs to give US consumers a little relief on sky high beef prices didn't the beef industry lobby strongly to prevent that from happening?

Was that because too many over paid when they bought $350 plus/CWT feeders and do not want to loose money from that bad decision, or was it simply because they were not finished price gouging the US consumers yet?

Feeder Cattle PRICE Today | Feeder Cattle Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Feeder Cattle per Ounce | Markets Insider

Feeder Cattle Price: Get all information on the Price of Feeder Cattle including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.

markets.businessinsider.com

When any US industry cannot meet domestic demand, why not open import restrictions? It could be over a decade before US beef stocks recover.

Take note of the fact it was not ranchers lobbying against importing beef as much as it was the middlemen, who actually reap most of the profit from domestic production and set prices for ranchers/farmers when they sell.

Replying to ny986. When the depression era farmers died they were all working to make a better living(easier) for their children and grandchildren, and we continue that today. I think that is/was an understandable mistake, and contributed to the decline of family farms.

 

[paul]

When the administration planned to lower beef import tariffs to give US consumers a little relief on sky high beef prices didn't the beef industry lobby strongly to prevent that from happening?

Was that because too many over paid when they bought $350 plus/CWT feeders and do not want to loose money from that bad decision, or was it simply because they were not finished price gouging the US consumers yet?

Feeder Cattle PRICE Today | Feeder Cattle Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Feeder Cattle per Ounce | Markets Insider

Feeder Cattle Price: Get all information on the Price of Feeder Cattle including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.

markets.businessinsider.com

When any US industry cannot meet domestic demand, why not open import restrictions? It could be over a decade before US beef stocks recover.

Ss55, there are a whole number of factors here.

You have some good points, valid things to discuss and look at.

On the other side:

The beef market has reacted to price trends. Live beef has risen in costs to match the prices on the supermarket shelves. It takes 2+ years to bring that expensive calf to the supermarket. If you crash supermarket prices with a flood of cheap imports, all those beef farmers with an inventory of expensive live animals will go bankrupt. Even with govt assistance at that time, many would never raise beef again. You would -drastically- shrink the usa beef herd, and now become dependent on lots of imported beef for decades to come. This would affect the rural USA economy deeply. And it would affect your beef supply and quality much more than currently.

Do you really want to be responsible for that?

Many find imported beef is stringy and flat tasting, which would make the product on the shelves poorer. It would be like saying gas prices are high, we need to import 84 octane gas to meet demands. While cheapening gas, would it really serve consumers here or create more problems with poor fuel quality? An oversimplified example, just for thought.

Currently the somewhat free market is doing its job, keeping beef supplies going at price levels that consumers seem to be able to afford. Let the markets work. Pork and chicken have remained fairly cheap, so consumers have easy options to meet their meat needs. Yes beef is darn expensive, but all the somewhat free market systems are working to keep food supplies and costs in line with each other.

Please, please, don’t crash those and destroy the USA beef industry for some short term price relief.

There has been some modest expansion of beef allowed, encouraged, and that is a fine thing, we can certainly meet in the middle in this.

But it would be terribly destructive to throw the doors open and import every scrap of meat we can.

There are so many bits and pieces that got us in the position we are in today, we need to unwind it slowly back to the middle ground again, it will take years to do so responsibly. Please be very careful what you ask for.

It is unfortunate beef is going into the lobster and crab affluent market, but it seems consumers have adjusted to that and it is working for everyone for now. Cycles swing and adjust, it is much better f we can allow that to happen instead of shocking the system and causing more problems than we have now.

It’s inconvenient to pay more for beef, but it’s not a crisis? Let’s move forth calmly and with reason.

Paul

 

[NY 986]

Ss55, there are a whole number of factors here.

You have some good points, valid things to discuss and look at.

On the other side:

The beef market has reacted to price trends. Live beef has risen in costs to match the prices on the supermarket shelves. It takes 2+ years to bring that expensive calf to the supermarket. If you crash supermarket prices with a flood of cheap imports, all those beef farmers with an inventory of expensive live animals will go bankrupt. Even with govt assistance at that time, many would never raise beef again. You would -drastically- shrink the usa beef herd, and now become dependent on lots of imported beef for decades to come. This would affect the rural USA economy deeply. And it would affect your beef supply and quality much more than currently.

Do you really want to be responsible for that?

Many find imported beef is stringy and flat tasting, which would make the product on the shelves poorer. It would be like saying gas prices are high, we need to import 84 octane gas to meet demands. While cheapening gas, would it really serve consumers here or create more problems with poor fuel quality? An oversimplified example, just for thought.

Currently the somewhat free market is doing its job, keeping beef supplies going at price levels that consumers seem to be able to afford. Let the markets work. Pork and chicken have remained fairly cheap, so consumers have easy options to meet their meat needs. Yes beef is darn expensive, but all the somewhat free market systems are working to keep food supplies and costs in line with each other.

Please, please, don’t crash those and destroy the USA beef industry for some short term price relief.

There has been some modest expansion of beef allowed, encouraged, and that is a fine thing, we can certainly meet in the middle in this.

But it would be terribly destructive to throw the doors open and import every scrap of meat we can.

There are so many bits and pieces that got us in the position we are in today, we need to unwind it slowly back to the middle ground again, it will take years to do so responsibly. Please be very careful what you ask for.

It is unfortunate beef is going into the lobster and crab affluent market, but it seems consumers have adjusted to that and it is working for everyone for now. Cycles swing and adjust, it is much better f we can allow that to happen instead of shocking the system and causing more problems than we have now.

It’s inconvenient to pay more for beef, but it’s not a crisis? Let’s move forth calmly and with reason.

Paul

I wonder how much of the beef market is influenced by public benefits such as SNAP? Public benefits factors greatly in some large communities.