Cattle herds are at their lowest in 75 years.

[paul]

It’s all part of the pieces to the puzzle, for sure.

We don’t like paying more for anything, and we like to make or receive more for ourselves at the same time.

human nature.

For those working, there was quite an increase in wages over the last 6 years for many classes of workers. That too factors into increasing costs. It’s just a circle, increase income, creates increased costs. It is more noticeable for those that did not get increases, or got let go as cuts were made to fund the higher wages of others.

Paul

 

[Ray,IN]

It’s all part of the pieces to the puzzle, for sure.

We don’t like paying more for anything, and we like to make or receive more for ourselves at the same time.

human nature.

For those working, there was quite an increase in wages over the last 6 years for many classes of workers. That too factors into increasing costs. It’s just a circle, increase income, creates increased costs. It is more noticeable for those that did not get increases, or got let go as cuts were made to fund the higher wages of others.

Paul

Yep, the results of paying hamburger stand entry jobs $20/hr resulted in $10 hamburgers.

 

[NY 986]

It’s all part of the pieces to the puzzle, for sure.

We don’t like paying more for anything, and we like to make or receive more for ourselves at the same time.

human nature.

For those working, there was quite an increase in wages over the last 6 years for many classes of workers. That too factors into increasing costs. It’s just a circle, increase income, creates increased costs. It is more noticeable for those that did not get increases, or got let go as cuts were made to fund the higher wages of others.

Paul

Granted we all live in different parts of the US and Canada but where I am in NY I would say that very very few saw an increase in pay to offset the increase in the cost of living. Sure trades people such as carpenters and plumbers who establish their own rates raised prices but how much of that was passed on to employees? What about the guy who works in the shop at the new car dealer or the woman who stocks shelves at Walmart?

 

[paul]

This cattle herd/ beef cycle is so difficult to get out of easily. And it will be terrible if we crash suddenly out of it.

Chicken and pork can have so many chicks and piglets born in a year per momma, and they grow to butcher size in a short time. We can add production so quickly.

Beef we have that one calf per cow per year and it takes couple years to get it butcher size. It’s so much smarter $$ to have the cow butchered for high dollar now, than risk going through with the calving and wait 3 years to see what beef prices are then. Take the money and run!

Beef is so self limiting in these conditions.

Throw in the screw worm that stopped imports from the south, dairy cow breeding that selects for almost no bull calves, and so on, and things really came together to shrink beef herd and continue to shrink it.

Paul

 

[paul]

Granted we all live in different parts of the US and Canada but where I am in NY I would say that very very few saw an increase in pay to offset the increase in the cost of living. Sure trades people such as carpenters and plumbers who establish their own rates raised prices but how much of that was passed on to employees? What about the guy who works in the shop at the new car dealer or the woman who stocks shelves at Walmart?

I don’t want to politicize this thread, but you might want to check wages from before 2020 compared to now, and you might be surprised at actual situation? Much of the wage increases came at the bottom end, so if your friends were already comfortably compensated they probably saw very little increase. But your labor pool certainly saw a statistically big increase.

What hurt people is the labor market was downsized so lower income folks got either an increase or fired. Now inflation from the higher wages they got is erasing their buying power so the net effect is not much help to anyone.

Economics has a way of balancing out.

Remember, if your grocery dollar doesn’t go as far as it used to, other than beef all grain and such raw food prices are lower than they were 6 years ago. Who is getting the extra money?

Like you say and as I thought I mentioned in my message, it’s not universal; but certainly the national trend is much higher wages to fewer lower paying jobs. Technology and efficiency replaced a lot of the missing jobs, which long term is cheaper but costs more the first few years, also driving current inflation.

Nothing is black and white, all this way or that way.

But the averages, the trends….

Paul

 

[sms]

IMO the largest single factor was the mad cow disease years and the ensuing regulations. However that was a short era of the 75 yr decline.
Herds will have to grow naturally, instead of buying at $4,000 for one young cow with calf by her side. Then there's the subject Tony spoke of, pasture land and the lack thereof today. I've seen feedlots in the S and W with hundreds of feeders on completely bare ground, the cattle never see a blade of grass. (and meat quality is suffering)
I see on TV every day where a farm in ILL is being broken up into lots and auctioned; most of it appears to be good, flat tillable ground, so there goes the grain supply for those feed lots, and what is available sells for high prices by the middlemen, the farmer doesn't benefit much
I'm a champion of maintaining family farms, but it totally depends upon the young generation and how they are raised.

I don't think the politicians see it, in NY land and school taxes are so high very few can afford large parcels of land, therefore it is sold off, broken up and built up.

 

[Eric in IL]

I have to wonder if beef production has mostly slipped from the farmer/rancher to the commercial producer.

Maybe that is the reason beef has remained high priced at the consumer level for so many years. Seems like the farmers have had ample time to react and over supply the market if they had wanted to try and cash in on higher prices.

If the commercial lots have majority control now, I believe they will certainly ration supplies to keep prices where they want them.

 

[72supr]

When corn hit 8 bucks 14 years ago it made a lot of so called cowboys sell the cows and bust the grass. Only the true cattlemen still have cows these days and we aren’t getting younger. Dry weather, getting older and not being able to work like a dog is part of why beef is high. The numbers aren’t there. If corn goes to three bucks I could care less. All those years we worked to keep our cattle herd together is finally paying off and I’m going to enjoy it as long as it lasts. I seen in the grocery store last night burger was $7.23 a #. A whole lot of other stuff that is purchased is much higher than beef and the taste doesn’t go very far

 

[Vito]

Fortunately for my wallet - and unfortunately for my taste buds - I can no longer tolerate beef, or red meat in general for that matter. I can get away with small portions of very lean stuff like venison or moose, but even that is a ...ummmmm.... "crap shoot".

Well stated. I get the picture

Vito

 

[rrlund]

I have to wonder if beef production has mostly slipped from the farmer/rancher to the commercial producer.

Maybe that is the reason beef has remained high priced at the consumer level for so many years. Seems like the farmers have had ample time to react and over supply the market if they had wanted to try and cash in on higher prices.

If the commercial lots have majority control now, I believe they will certainly ration supplies to keep prices where they want them.

What are you talking about "commercial producer"? Those calves aren't born in feedlots. They're there for a short time to be finished.

 

[moresmoke]

Until the weather pattern changes over the western US, there isn’t enough grass to meaningfully grow the cow herd. Right now there are a bunch of Mama cows living in Nebraska feedyards as the grass is gone and harvested feed is cheap.

I see more beef supply growth coming out of the dairy barns than off the ranch. These expanding midwest mega dairies can produce a significant number of Jersey Angus cross calves.

As much as I love cows, I decided long ago that unless I could have enough cattle to live on, it wasn’t worth the hassle.

 

[Texasmark]

My wife has tried bees a couple of times and enjoyed it, but it is another expensive hobby (IMO) considering the time it takes to stay on top of any problems and that they can take off and be gone. I think she finally has given up on it. She has some friends who are very successful with them, but I think they spend a lot of their time on it.

I added muscadines this year to an area I was originally going to fence in for pasture. I would rather mess with what little they need than deal with bees and told her I can always trade for honey if I want with less risk, since they thrive around here and won't swarm and take off on me.

I realized a lot of what you said about your wife's experiences. I didn't really want a labor intensive operation but my daughter kept pushing me to hurry up and get this and that....I wanted to take it slow and easy and learn my way into it. Other thing was I am tired of working! The bee thing hit me right in the face as a labor intensive job (besides the other ramifications) if you were to succeed....once you overcame the learner pitfalls as mentioned.

So much for that. I have some neighbors that need some good pasture of which I have plenty. I could solve my problems leasing out pasture and that may be the way I will be going.......buttttt it won't be to just anybody for any reason. Seen too much of what tenants can do to one's land.

 

[Ray,IN]

Until the weather pattern changes over the western US, there isn’t enough grass to meaningfully grow the cow herd. Right now there are a bunch of Mama cows living in Nebraska feedyards as the grass is gone and harvested feed is cheap.

I see more beef supply growth coming out of the dairy barns than off the ranch. These expanding midwest mega dairies can produce a significant number of Jersey Angus cross calves.

As much as I love cows, I decided long ago that unless I could have enough cattle to live on, it wasn’t worth the hassle.

About 30 yrs ago we were traveling the country (NM at the time) in our RV. While at a roadside tourist trap I asked a man where can I see the big herds of cattle? He pointed across the highway and said, "see those tiny black dots just in front of that distant hill?" "Those are a herd of cattle, out here it takes about 35A to feed one cow, its not like back East where it takes 7A to feed one cow, so a herd of cattle out here is much different."

 

[John in MD]

About 30 yrs ago we were traveling the country (NM at the time) in our RV. While at a roadside tourist trap I asked a man where can I see the big herds of cattle? He pointed across the highway and said, "see those tiny black dots just in front of that distant hill?" "Those are a herd of cattle, out here it takes about 35A to feed one cow, its not like back East where it takes 7A to feed one cow, so a herd of cattle out here is much different."

In 1970 I was a student at NMT School of Mining and Technology in Socorro. At that time, they were grazing 2 cow calf units per section. When I came home, I asked the extension agent what the ratio was here, he said it was averaging 1 cow calf per acre of pasture.
Now it's more like 3 building lots per acre, the small dairies are gone and it's rare to see any pastures, all are 10-acre manicured lawns that are taken care of by landscapers.
I sold out just before the mad cow fiasco in the early 2000's had 42 brood cows, got lucky. We used to have 3 butchers within 10 miles, now I have to use an Amish butcher 35 miles away in Lancaster County. After a year of no cows, I started a small herd of 20 registered angus brood cows. Sold them last year and was just going to buy feeder steers to use the pastures. That didn't work with the current prices. Now all I have are 2 guernsey and 2 jersey milk cows and 3 angus feeders that I held back. I'm 73 and not planning on trying to get anymore beef cattle. I'd have to say if I didn't have my own beef, I wouldn't buy the crap they sell in the grocery stores, it' not so much the quality but the way it's cut and packaged.

 

[Texasmark]

The trouble is the economy is under stress. Many consumers are juggling pins in terms of increased fuel, electric (rate increase), taxes, and food to name a few. The pins have gotten so heavy that they are now hitting the ground. When that happens consumers re-evaluate their priorities. Beef with its high cost per pound will be a target for change. Pork used to be considered a food for the poor but with BBQ sauces and so forth pork has become a desired meal along with chicken. Maybe meat dollars will shift back to beef once the cost decreases considerably but will producers be able to offer it and make a profit? Probably not. Will tastes change back? Look at the ad campaigns over the past few decades and how it appeals to consumers to kick the boring beef habit.

On Pork being for the poor......A rack of Baby Back Ribs in the smoker will stand up to anybody's Prime Rib Roast!!!!!!

 

[Texasmark]

In 1970 I was a student at NMT School of Mining and Technology in Socorro. At that time, they were grazing 2 cow calf units per section. When I came home, I asked the extension agent what the ratio was here, he said it was averaging 1 cow calf per acre of pasture.
Now it's more like 3 building lots per acre, the small dairies are gone and it's rare to see any pastures, all are 10-acre manicured lawns that are taken care of by landscapers.
I sold out just before the mad cow fiasco in the early 2000's had 42 brood cows, got lucky. We used to have 3 butchers within 10 miles, now I have to use an Amish butcher 35 miles away in Lancaster County. After a year of no cows, I started a small herd of 20 registered angus brood cows. Sold them last year and was just going to buy feeder steers to use the pastures. That didn't work with the current prices. Now all I have are 2 guernsey and 2 jersey milk cows and 3 angus feeders that I held back. I'm 73 and not planning on trying to get anymore beef cattle. I'd have to say if I didn't have my own beef, I wouldn't buy the crap they sell in the grocery stores, it' not so much the quality but the way it's cut and packaged.

When the wife and I were raising our family, living in town, I would go to Safeway (as I recall) grocery, go into the meat department and order a rib or butt section of beef and stand there instructing the butcher how I wanted it cut and wrapped. Worked out just fine. Did it numerous times. The beef wasn't Prime grade, but was just fine for the family at the time.

 

[Texasmark]

About 30 yrs ago we were traveling the country (NM at the time) in our RV. While at a roadside tourist trap I asked a man where can I see the big herds of cattle? He pointed across the highway and said, "see those tiny black dots just in front of that distant hill?" "Those are a herd of cattle, out here it takes about 35A to feed one cow, its not like back East where it takes 7A to feed one cow, so a herd of cattle out here is much different."

I have to respond to this inclusion in this post: "see those tiny black dots just in front of that distant hill?"

I was increasing my herd and was looking for a good Brangus bull. Went to a well known farm and got the "royal" treatment in a cruise around the place looking for one to select. Toward the end of the trip, we pulled up to a fence and the owner said........"see that black dot over there".....he's for sale too.......Had to get a BIG laugh out of that offering.

 

[joeysmith]

Here its been the out of state deer hunters buying up rangeland for several years.

Most of them wanted nothing on the land disrupting their hunting so the acres got taken from cattle production.


Thankfully most are realizing thats not a good idea and are leasing the land back to the cattlemen

 

[rrlund]

Until the weather pattern changes over the western US, there isn’t enough grass to meaningfully grow the cow herd. Right now there are a bunch of Mama cows living in Nebraska feedyards as the grass is gone and harvested feed is cheap.

I see more beef supply growth coming out of the dairy barns than off the ranch. These expanding midwest mega dairies can produce a significant number of Jersey Angus cross calves.

As much as I love cows, I decided long ago that unless I could have enough cattle to live on, it wasn’t worth the hassle.

The dairy herd is shrinking too. Production per cow is constantly increasing and there's no need for so many cows. Those mega dairies have offset thousands of smaller farms. I remember Dad bragging that he used to pick up a full load of canned milk between here and Greenville. Now there's only one dairy farm between here and Greenville. I don't know how many tanker loads a day go out of there, but I'd say at least three.

 

[Russ from MN]

Our kind of red meat, I didn't shoot this one, but got one very similar, and my wife got one too!