Cattle herds are at their lowest in 75 years.

[moresmoke]

The dairy herd is shrinking too. Production per cow is constantly increasing and there's no need for so many cows. Those mega dairies have offset thousands of smaller farms. I remember Dad bragging that he used to pick up a full load of canned milk between here and Greenville. Now there's only one dairy farm between here and Greenville. I don't know how many tanker loads a day go out of there, but I'd say at least three.

The ones that are coming in here are all Jersey cross cows. The milk is all going for processing so they are after components.

There are no small dairies here to displace, I think this is more of a shift from Idaho, California, and TX/NM as we generally have enough water to work with.

 

[rrlund]

One of the obstacles to a smaller dairy here in Michigan is even getting a hauler to pull I the yard. They can get a load in a few stops and don't want to spend all of their time driving around taking on a few thousand pounds at a stop. Of course the small profit margin per CWT discourages dairying too. Once the scale tipped in favor of the mega dairies, it flipped in a few years, not over several decades. The first revolution was from 24 cow stanchion barn setups to hundred cow free stalls barns and double four parlors. Going from ten farms with a hundred cows to one farm with a thousand cows was the next.

 

[NY 986]

The ones that are coming in here are all Jersey cross cows. The milk is all going for processing so they are after components.

There are no small dairies here to displace, I think this is more of a shift from Idaho, California, and TX/NM as we generally have enough water to work with.

The great fear here 15 years ago in the Finger Lakes region for dairy producers was irradiated milk being brought in from the Southwest and California. That has not happened and your statement about available water offers a major clue as to why to this point in time. If the water problem was solved that might allow for efficient transportation by rail to the Northeast which would be very harmful to producers here.

 

[NY 986]

One of the obstacles to a smaller dairy here in Michigan is even getting a hauler to pull I the yard. They can get a load in a few stops and don't want to spend all of their time driving around taking on a few thousand pounds at a stop. Of course the small profit margin per CWT discourages dairying too. Once the scale tipped in favor of the mega dairies, it flipped in a few years, not over several decades. The first revolution was from 24 cow stanchion barn setups to hundred cow free stalls barns and double four parlors. Going from ten farms with a hundred cows to one farm with a thousand cows was the next.

Even during the 1990's haulers were placing a surcharge on stopping at a smaller dairy. Word was the charge ate 25 percent or more of the monthly gross revenue. I think the big agribusinesses now are suffering from mega-fatigue. There are getting to be so few customers to support any given farm equipment dealership that drastic cuts in staffing are happening if they already have not happened. Dealerships which have substantial consumer products offerings are currently in a better position to weather the storm but would have serious trouble if a major downturn in the economy happened. I can't help but think but the soon coming closure of a wood products company is going to have a major impact on the nearby New Holland dealership which also handles Kubota. Not much in the way of jobs in that part of the state and early retirement by the workers is going to reduce their spending. Increased real estate prices and increased vehicle prices (remember used stock got hammered a few years ago) is major weight on the shoulders of a young couple setting up in their first home.

 

[ss55]

If “they” don’t think that everyone with a breeding herd is looking at keeping 10 percent more back with the prices. This goes in waves. There will be “too much” beef in the marketplace within 5 years and everyone will have too many cows. I don’t doubt that there is a bit of a shortage while that happens but it’s a free market everyone seems to think that’s bad but this is what it does. Messing with it is how you get the Argentinian beef. purchase a juicy pork chop now for a couple years if the price isn’t too your liking and the demand will level out accordingly.

The direct processing boom from small scale to large is what’s been different in cattle vs what we lost in hogs and chickens. Control much like the ethanol plant is much better local.

For so many years cattle farmers struggled and I was so glad we only had 30 cows but now that there’s enough money in it to repair the fence everyone whines about the price. It’s not the only thing that has gone up just the only ag commodity that isn’t an input that has kept up with inflation. Lord knows the fertilizer salesman kept up. Corn and beans didn’t do that.

Fixingfarmer, this is not a a criticism of you, more of an addition to the ongoing discussion.

It only seems that farm commodity markets are only truly free markets when farmers and ranchers are making good money.

When farm commodity markets tank the Ag industry instantly reverses its stance, crying and lobbying for strong government market interventions in the form of tax payer paid subsidies, direct farm payments like the soybean payments, heavily subsidized crop insurance, and government mandates on consumer options like mandatory E-10 and now they are now pushing for E-15 to make up for lost export sales. Sure, US farmer claim to feed the world, but we really don't produce much actual food for people anymore, much of out fruits and vegetables are imported now, and those are heavily tariffed, even though US farmers have no interest in growing those foods. Livestock and dairy production have shifted to large industrialized operations where owning the genetics is a hugh advantage. Farmland prices have sky rocketed to investment market status because it is impossible to loose money farming just corn and soybeans. Everyone and his brother wants to get on the gravy train and farm. Young people cannot cannot afford to start farming anymore as they cannot compete with wealth hobby farmers or large scale operations.

It as if US farmers and ranchers now demand a guaranteed income even when they make some poor or risky decisions that loose them money. If that isn't selective socialism what is?

Would the USA as a country and the Ag industry both be better off if the USA actually stopped subsidizing farming, let the less efficient farms cash out now at a profit, and let the more efficient farms operate with less competition from investors, speculators and wealthy hobby farmers?

I know that sounds very harsh, but IMHO, it is the current reality. For the last one hundred years US farming has been changing, adapting, consolidating, and innovating. Never staying the same or coasting on it laurels. The decades of high profits from corn and soybeans might now be over. New crops and alternate land uses might be the future to farm profits rather than relying on the government for more bailouts.

 

[NY 986]

Fixingfarmer, this is not a a criticism of you, more of an addition to the ongoing discussion.

It only seems that farm commodity markets are only truly free markets when farmers and ranchers are making good money.

When farm commodity markets tank the Ag industry instantly reverses its stance, crying and lobbying for strong government market interventions in the form of tax payer paid subsidies, direct farm payments like the soybean payments, heavily subsidized crop insurance, and government mandates on consumer options like mandatory E-10 and now they are now pushing for E-15 to make up for lost export sales. Sure, US farmer claim to feed the world, but we really don't produce much actual food for people anymore, much of out fruits and vegetables are imported now, and those are heavily tariffed, even though US farmers have no interest in growing those foods. Livestock and dairy production have shifted to large industrialized operations where owning the genetics is a hugh advantage. Farmland prices have sky rocketed to investment market status because it is impossible to loose money farming just corn and soybeans. Everyone and his brother wants to get on the gravy train and farm. Young people cannot cannot afford to start farming anymore as they cannot compete with wealth hobby farmers or large scale operations.

It as if US farmers and ranchers now demand a guaranteed income even when they make some poor or risky decisions that loose them money. If that isn't selective socialism what is?

Would the USA as a country and the Ag industry both be better off if the USA actually stopped subsidizing farming, let the less efficient farms cash out now at a profit, and let the more efficient farms operate with less competition from investors, speculators and wealthy hobby farmers?

I know that sounds very harsh, but IMHO, it is the current reality. For the last one hundred years US farming has been changing, adapting, consolidating, and innovating. Never staying the same or coasting on it laurels. The decades of high profits from corn and soybeans might now be over. New crops and alternate land uses might be the future to farm profits rather than relying on the government for more bailouts.

The less efficient are the smaller farms run by mom and pop in most situations. The speculators and wealthy buy highly productive land versus marginal land. The higher the yield per acre the less the cost per bushel to buy high HP tractors, 60 ft planters, and 16 row combines. In most cases mom and pop need to buy more productive land to make a living but for the most part it is not happening. Fruits and vegetables in terms of US acres are declining because processing companies have great difficulty putting product into stores where they and the grocery store make money.

 

[Fixingfarmer]

Fixingfarmer, this is not a a criticism of you, more of an addition to the ongoing discussion.

It only seems that farm commodity markets are only truly free markets when farmers and ranchers are making good money.

When farm commodity markets tank the Ag industry instantly reverses its stance, crying and lobbying for strong government market interventions in the form of tax payer paid subsidies, direct farm payments like the soybean payments, heavily subsidized crop insurance, and government mandates on consumer options like mandatory E-10 and now they are now pushing for E-15 to make up for lost export sales. Sure, US farmer claim to feed the world, but we really don't produce much actual food for people anymore, much of out fruits and vegetables are imported now, and those are heavily tariffed, even though US farmers have no interest in growing those foods. Livestock and dairy production have shifted to large industrialized operations where owning the genetics is a hugh advantage. Farmland prices have sky rocketed to investment market status because it is impossible to loose money farming just corn and soybeans. Everyone and his brother wants to get on the gravy train and farm. Young people cannot cannot afford to start farming anymore as they cannot compete with wealth hobby farmers or large scale operations.

It as if US farmers and ranchers now demand a guaranteed income even when they make some poor or risky decisions that loose them money. If that isn't selective socialism what is?

Would the USA as a country and the Ag industry both be better off if the USA actually stopped subsidizing farming, let the less efficient farms cash out now at a profit, and let the more efficient farms operate with less competition from investors, speculators and wealthy hobby farmers?

I know that sounds very harsh, but IMHO, it is the current reality. For the last one hundred years US farming has been changing, adapting, consolidating, and innovating. Never staying the same or coasting on it laurels. The decades of high profits from corn and soybeans might now be over. New crops and alternate land uses might be the future to farm profits rather than relying on the government for more bailouts.

No criticism taken I agree 100 percent. I just see cattle as a strange target after watching that rise with fewer government handouts than corn and beans. It’s because it’s the product everyone wants. And then all of a sudden it’s a national problem. I think the government payments also help to keep the 80 year olds farming too. Case in point I tried to buy an acreage as a young family 10 years ago and the gentleman didn’t want to sell yet he was only 78. About a month ago it got hit by a tornado and lost his best shed and wants to sell. Well sorry we have a place now…the 80 year olds aren’t fertilizing the fields themselves or spraying and some aren’t even planting and harvesting. That’s how you make up the money and a lot of them have forgotten that farming is DIY to a fault. The payments have made it too easy. Hiring the labor out is how you go broke now. 14 dollars an acre how many passes you want us to do for you?

 

[rrlund]

The less efficient are the smaller farms run by mom and pop in most situations. The speculators and wealthy buy highly productive land versus marginal land. The higher the yield per acre the less the cost per bushel to buy high HP tractors, 60 ft planters, and 16 row combines. In most cases mom and pop need to buy more productive land to make a living but for the most part it is not happening. Fruits and vegetables in terms of US acres are declining because processing companies have great difficulty putting product into stores where they and the grocery store make money.

There's too much fruit being grown in this country. My cousin owns and orchard here in Michigan. He said they might a well pull the apple trees right out of the ground. He said Washington state alone grows all of the apples that the US market can handle. They dump TONS of cherries here every year to try to control the supply. If we're importing fruit, it's tropical fruit that we don't grow here.

 

[Ray,IN]

Fixingfarmer, this is not a a criticism of you, more of an addition to the ongoing discussion.

It only seems that farm commodity markets are only truly free markets when farmers and ranchers are making good money.

When farm commodity markets tank the Ag industry instantly reverses its stance, crying and lobbying for strong government market interventions in the form of tax payer paid subsidies, direct farm payments like the soybean payments, heavily subsidized crop insurance, and government mandates on consumer options like mandatory E-10 and now they are now pushing for E-15 to make up for lost export sales. Sure, US farmer claim to feed the world, but we really don't produce much actual food for people anymore, much of out fruits and vegetables are imported now, and those are heavily tariffed, even though US farmers have no interest in growing those foods. Livestock and dairy production have shifted to large industrialized operations where owning the genetics is a hugh advantage. Farmland prices have sky rocketed to investment market status because it is impossible to loose money farming just corn and soybeans. Everyone and his brother wants to get on the gravy train and farm. Young people cannot cannot afford to start farming anymore as they cannot compete with wealth hobby farmers or large scale operations.

It as if US farmers and ranchers now demand a guaranteed income even when they make some poor or risky decisions that loose them money. If that isn't selective socialism what is?

Would the USA as a country and the Ag industry both be better off if the USA actually stopped subsidizing farming, let the less efficient farms cash out now at a profit, and let the more efficient farms operate with less competition from investors, speculators and wealthy hobby farmers?

I know that sounds very harsh, but IMHO, it is the current reality. For the last one hundred years US farming has been changing, adapting, consolidating, and innovating. Never staying the same or coasting on it laurels. The decades of high profits from corn and soybeans might now be over. New crops and alternate land uses might be the future to farm profits rather than relying on the government for more bailouts.

I too believe crop subsidies are the worst thing to happen to farmers. I also believe subsidies are the driving force behind large industrial multi-corporate farms. I do not know how this relates to raising cattle.

 

[flying belgian]

I have to wonder if beef production has mostly slipped from the farmer/rancher to the commercial producer.

Maybe that is the reason beef has remained high priced at the consumer level for so many years. Seems like the farmers have had ample time to react and over supply the market if they had wanted to try and cash in on higher prices.

If the commercial lots have majority control now, I believe they will certainly ration supplies to keep prices where they want them.

You make a good point Eric.

 

[TerryfromSWIowa]

There's too much fruit being grown in this country. My cousin owns and orchard here in Michigan. He said they might a well pull the apple trees right out of the ground. He said Washington state alone grows all of the apples that the US market can handle. They dump TONS of cherries here every year to try to control the supply. If we're importing fruit, it's tropical fruit that we don't grow here.

Lots of fruit trees have been taken out in Washington. My BIL lives north of Spokane and showed us where many orchards have been removed and turned back to ag.