Fall cattle prices

[jhwis]

Other post got sideways quickly. What do you see the actual fall (November) feeder and fat prices are gonna be at? I think it's too early to tell just yet.

 

[rrlund]

I'm trying to stay positive and optimistic, but the unpredictability and instability that aren't related to actual market fundamentals are definitely a real threat. Prices are down from a year ago for sure. When the bottom fell out in Chicago a month or more ago, cash and sale barn held up better than futures, I wouldn't want to take anything to the sale barn tomorrow to test it. Not sure I even want to check Tuesday morning to see the sale results. I don't think we're going to see $1 fats and $2 feeders, but we've caught the attention of the powers that can ruin us and those powers seem destined to make us a target for at least a while. Buyers are going to be real reluctant to gamble and pay anything more than they can contract for at a profit. Anybody not contracted won't be sticking their neck out.

 

[moresmoke]

Bringing in processed beef doesn’t put hooves in the feedyards. And most of the big feedyards are very cozy with the packers.

And corn is still incredibly cheap.

The main sale barn here has been posting the same price per head all summer for everything from 4 weights to 7s. If I had calves, they would have been gone as soon as they hit the 400 mark.

 

[Tony in SD]

I really don't know. The rise and fall of prices does not necessarily coexist with the factors we are told. Any market is a lot like gambling in Las Vegas, it is sometimes a crap shoot. But what I do know, in my area 40 years ago, everybody had cattle. Now most have gone to corn & bean farming only. Our farm was 50/50 pasture/hay and crop land. Now it is mostly 20/80 pasture/hay - crop land. Within 15 mile radius of my farm there are only about 5 farmers left that have cattle. So the numbers of cattle, at least in my part of the world are down significantly. What the means for the price of cattle? Who knows?

 

[farmersamm]

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_1832.pdf We'll see I guess. As of last week, Tulsa was still healthy. Makes me wish I'd put the clutch in the 1 ton. We have a few to go to sale.

 

[joeysmith]

I really don't know. The rise and fall of prices does not necessarily coexist with the factors we are told. Any market is a lot like gambling in Las Vegas, it is sometimes a crap shoot. But what I do know, in my area 40 years ago, everybody had cattle. Now most have gone to corn & bean farming only. Our farm was 50/50 pasture/hay and crop land. Now it is mostly 20/80 pasture/hay - crop land. Within 15 mile radius of my farm there are only about 5 farmers left that have cattle. So the numbers of cattle, at least in my part of the world are down significantly. What the means for the price of cattle? Who knows?

A lot of land in my area the only option is livestock of some sort so we still have the big ranches but the little guy that raised a handful a year are definitely nearing zero

 

[EFV]

At current prices it's very risky to retain heifers to rebuild herd. Herd size small but cattle on feed still adequate/high.
Besides imports the dairy industry has become VERY fond of Angus/Holstein cross calves. Dairy barn expansion is
being paid for cash money from calves that used to sell for $100-150 now bringing $1100-1600+. Dairy herd is almost
10 million head now, providing feeder cattle that never existed years ago , and adding 5-8 million mama cows to
realistic beef numbers. The virus that can't be mentioned made people aware of smaller local supplies which taste
good(better) enough to support price level . Until a disruptive force affects this market Laissez les bons temps rouler !!

 

[Steve in VA]

At current prices it's very risky to retain heifers to rebuild herd. Herd size small but cattle on feed still adequate/high.
Besides imports the dairy industry has become VERY fond of Angus/Holstein cross calves. Dairy barn expansion is
being paid for cash money from calves that used to sell for $100-150 now bringing $1100-1600+. Dairy herd is almost
10 million head now, providing feeder cattle that never existed years ago , and adding 5-8 million mama cows to
realistic beef numbers. The virus that can't be mentioned made people aware of smaller local supplies which taste
good(better) enough to support price level . Until a disruptive force affects this market Laissez les bons temps rouler !!

Et roule face aux ale'as.

 

[farmersamm]

I'm curious.......................

As a kid (18) I drove a feed truck in what was called the most modern feedlot for its day. Sonnenberg & Sons, North of Sterling, CO.

That was over 5 decades ago, so maybe my memory is fuzzy.

I seem to recall that the initial part of the cycle was silage mixed with antibiotics. As the animals were moved to the next pen, the percentage of corn in the ration increased...........until the finishing pens, where it was 100% corn coated with molasses. Antibiotics were part of the ration from the time the cattle arrived.

For some reason................I'm thinking that the cattle were on straight corn for a pretty long time. Based on memory, and what I remember was the percentage of pens/bunks devoted to straight corn. (Don't ever dump the wrong ration in the wrong bunk............it takes a ton of time to shovel it out

) (really makes all the other drivers mad at you).

Anyways................I'm thinking that corn comprised a larger/longer percentage of the cycle. AND BEEF TASTED GOOD IN THOSE DAYS. This grass/sileage crap tastes..........well...........like crap. I can't stand paying for stuff that's barely edible. No......we don't slaughter our own. K'kins won't stand for it. I load them when they hit 400#, and take them to the sale barn.

I have a friend up North that always drops some of his beef off at K'kins office. We can't tell him it tastes like crap, he's so proud of it. Might as go out, and shoot a deer, and eat it.

Maybe somebody knows if the rations have changed over the years???????????

 

[Mark-Ia]

Et roule face aux ale'as.

Had to look that up. Et roule face aux aléas" is a French expression signifying resilience, encouraging one to keep moving forward despite life's unexpected challenges. It promotes maintaining progress and embracing uncertainty with a determined, go-with-the-flow attitude.

 

[Steve in VA]

Had to look that up. Et roule face aux aléas" is a French expression signifying resilience, encouraging one to keep moving forward despite life's unexpected challenges. It promotes maintaining progress and embracing uncertainty with a determined, go-with-the-flow attitude.

Seemed to fit. I tried w/o success to put the accent mark properly but failed.

 

[rrlund]

Had to look that up. Et roule face aux aléas" is a French expression signifying resilience, encouraging one to keep moving forward despite life's unexpected challenges. It promotes maintaining progress and embracing uncertainty with a determined, go-with-the-flow attitude.

All nice in theory, but there comes a point where you're just not in love anymore and some of us have about reached that point with cattle. A lot of us older guys were waiting for that last big jackpot and we hit it over the last six years. We're sobering up, we're tired, our wives are tired, and we just want to cash out and go home. We're not going to let it ride and hope for another win again.

 

[Texasmark]

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_1832.pdf We'll see I guess. As of last week, Tulsa was still healthy. Makes me wish I'd put the clutch in the 1 ton. We have a few to go to sale.

When I had cattle they went to the Durant, Ok. sale barn. Got really super prices for my stock.....I think the BTO ranchers along the river have a competition going where one may outbid another just to keep them from getting a certain bovine, not necessarily needing nor wanting it otherwise.

 

[john in la]

At current prices it's very risky to retain heifers to rebuild herd. Herd size small but cattle on feed still adequate/high.
Besides imports the dairy industry has become VERY fond of Angus/Holstein cross calves. Dairy barn expansion is
being paid for cash money from calves that used to sell for $100-150 now bringing $1100-1600+. Dairy herd is almost
10 million head now, providing feeder cattle that never existed years ago , and adding 5-8 million mama cows to
realistic beef numbers. The virus that can't be mentioned made people aware of smaller local supplies which taste
good(better) enough to support price level . Until a disruptive force affects this market Laissez les bons temps rouler !!

If you said that in France they would understand the words but they would tell you it is not proper grammar.

Great example of how the same language spoken in different parts of the world sound so much different.

 

[joeysmith]

Lower prices give the younger guys an gals an easier chance to jump in or expand.

Some places livestock is the only choice.
Land cannot be used for much else

Even the hunters have came around to find that a well managed range is better for their game population than kicking the ranchers out entirely.

 

[Steve in VA]

If you said that in France they would understand the words but they would tell you it is not proper grammar.

Great example of how the same language spoken in different parts of the world sound so much different.

Indeed, but i barely communicate in english.

 

[farmersamm]

Many of zee English barely communicate in English

 

[farmersamm]

Tulsa is holding.......................................

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_1832.pdf

 

[ss55]

At current prices it's very risky to retain heifers to rebuild herd. Herd size small but cattle on feed still adequate/high.
Besides imports the dairy industry has become VERY fond of Angus/Holstein cross calves. Dairy barn expansion is
being paid for cash money from calves that used to sell for $100-150 now bringing $1100-1600+. Dairy herd is almost
10 million head now, providing feeder cattle that never existed years ago , and adding 5-8 million mama cows to
realistic beef numbers. The virus that can't be mentioned made people aware of smaller local supplies which taste
good(better) enough to support price level . Until a disruptive force affects this market Laissez les bons temps rouler !!

EFV brings up a very good point, pointing to a Catch 22 for the beef industry and possibly to a big shakeup for the industry.

- The cost of replacement heifers is too high to make rebuilding the cattle herd size profitable, so herd size will most likely continue to decrease for more years until the price of replacement heifers drops substantially.

- The price of replacement heifers will not drop until the price of consumer beef drops substantially.

- Consumer beef prices will not drop until either the beef herd size increases substantially (unlikely) or demand for beef drops substantially.

Without intervention, the beef market cannot correct itself until the consumer demand for beef falls faster than the beef herd continues to shrink.

How much will the industry shrink before prices stabilize: 10; 25; 50 percent? What does that mean for the future of the beef industry and for small scale beef producers? Will the beef industry follow the pork, poultry and dairy industries where larger producers control the genetics and smaller producers raise animals on contract? Will US consumer tastes eventually return to beef or will consumer tastes permanently shift towards pork, poultry and maybe to the newly expanding mutton and goat market (Agri-Voltics)?

What are the beef industry insiders hearing? Your thoughts?

 

[rrlund]

EFV brings up a very good point, pointing to a Catch 22 for the beef industry and possibly to a big shakeup for the industry.

- The cost of replacement heifers is too high to make rebuilding the cattle herd size profitable, so herd size will most likely continue to decrease for more years until the price of replacement heifers drops substantially.

- The price of replacement heifers will not drop until the price of consumer beef drops substantially.

- Consumer beef prices will not drop until either the beef herd size increases substantially (unlikely) or demand for beef drops substantially.

Without intervention, the beef market cannot correct itself until the consumer demand for beef falls faster than the beef herd continues to shrink.

How much will the industry shrink before prices stabilize: 10; 25; 50 percent? What does that mean for the future of the beef industry and for small scale beef producers? Will the beef industry follow the pork, poultry and dairy industries where larger producers control the genetics and smaller producers raise animals on contract? Will US consumer tastes eventually return to beef or will consumer tastes permanently shift towards pork, poultry and maybe to the newly expanding mutton and goat market (Agri-Voltics)?

What are the beef industry insiders hearing? Your thoughts?

You guys keep saying "The beef industry". Every one of those calves are born on a farm or ranch. It's all going to hinge on how much incentive that we as individuals are getting. No incentive to expand, no expansion. I'm 71 years old and have been farming since I was 12. I can tell you with 100% certainty, the only way that supply increases is when prices are high enough to for greed to cause us to think we're the only ones who'll get rich by producing more at high prices. We're just naturally stupid that way. The only ones smart enough to keep production low when prices are high are oil producers. We'd do well to take a lesson from them.