Fall cattle prices

[farmersamm]

The fly in the ointment.....................regulations might get changed to allow packers to own their own herds. Then all bets are off.

 

[rrlund]

The fly in the ointment.....................regulations might get changed to allow packers to own their own herds. Then all bets are off.

I don't think they want to own their own "herds". I think they want to own their own feedlots and those calves will have to come from somewhere. Numbers are low because of drought, plain and simple. Packers, farmers, ranchers, anybody can own all the pasture land they want to, but without water, there won't be cattle grazing on it. When we get rain, if prices are still profitable, expansion will start.

 

[farmersamm]

You're probably right. Tyson doesn't own their own chicken houses..........they contract with guys that go broke keeping them in fryers.

 

[farmersamm]

Or work for slave wages on their own place

 

[Ray,IN]

EFV brings up a very good point, pointing to a Catch 22 for the beef industry and possibly to a big shakeup for the industry.

- The cost of replacement heifers is too high to make rebuilding the cattle herd size profitable, so herd size will most likely continue to decrease for more years until the price of replacement heifers drops substantially.

- The price of replacement heifers will not drop until the price of consumer beef drops substantially.

- Consumer beef prices will not drop until either the beef herd size increases substantially (unlikely) or demand for beef drops substantially.

Without intervention, the beef market cannot correct itself until the consumer demand for beef falls faster than the beef herd continues to shrink.

How much will the industry shrink before prices stabilize: 10; 25; 50 percent? What does that mean for the future of the beef industry and for small scale beef producers? Will the beef industry follow the pork, poultry and dairy industries where larger producers control the genetics and smaller producers raise animals on contract? Will US consumer tastes eventually return to beef or will consumer tastes permanently shift towards pork, poultry and maybe to the newly expanding mutton and goat market (Agri-Voltics)?

What are the beef industry insiders hearing? Your thoughts?

You say a lot for the vegan lifestyle.

 

[jhwis]

You guys keep saying "The beef industry". Every one of those calves are born on a farm or ranch. It's all going to hinge on how much incentive that we as individuals are getting. No incentive to expand, no expansion. I'm 71 years old and have been farming since I was 12. I can tell you with 100% certainty, the only way that supply increases is when prices are high enough to for greed to cause us to think we're the only ones who'll get rich by producing more at high prices. We're just naturally stupid that way. The only ones smart enough to keep production low when prices are high are oil producers. We'd do well to take a lesson from them.

Rrlund is correct.

 

[the tractior vet]

I'm curious.......................

As a kid (18) I drove a feed truck in what was called the most modern feedlot for its day. Sonnenberg & Sons, North of Sterling, CO.

That was over 5 decades ago, so maybe my memory is fuzzy.

I seem to recall that the initial part of the cycle was silage mixed with antibiotics. As the animals were moved to the next pen, the percentage of corn in the ration increased...........until the finishing pens, where it was 100% corn coated with molasses. Antibiotics were part of the ration from the time the cattle arrived.

For some reason................I'm thinking that the cattle were on straight corn for a pretty long time. Based on memory, and what I remember was the percentage of pens/bunks devoted to straight corn. (Don't ever dump the wrong ration in the wrong bunk............it takes a ton of time to shovel it outView attachment 161793) (really makes all the other drivers mad at you).

Anyways................I'm thinking that corn comprised a larger/longer percentage of the cycle. AND BEEF TASTED GOOD IN THOSE DAYS. This grass/sileage crap tastes..........well...........like crap. I can't stand paying for stuff that's barely edible. No......we don't slaughter our own. K'kins won't stand for it. I load them when they hit 400#, and take them to the sale barn.

I have a friend up North that always drops some of his beef off at K'kins office. We can't tell him it tastes like crap, he's so proud of it. Might as go out, and shoot a deer, and eat it.

Maybe somebody knows if the rations have changed over the years???????????

One of my old customers raises a small herd of black angus and he also does butchering . several times i have taken care of his farm when the family had to go away for up to two weeks . And i had to grind feed for the fat cows . they got ground ear corn 800 lbs of soy meal 100 lbs of minerals and 1000lbs of Barley / His feed grinder had scales on it making the job easier . He uses some of my equipment and as RENT i get a half side of some outstanding Beef all cut and wrapped . At times he and i go buy a bunch of feeder pigs and i put one in the freezer and his kids each get one and we sell what is left on the hoof . and again we grind our own feed .

 

[john in la]

Unlike chicken pork or dairy industry that thousands and thousands of animals fit on a few hundred acres the beef industry needs to much land in the form of pastures for it to switch over to a few big companies owning all of the mother cows in this country.

 

[want@1070]

How the small to mid - size ,local, " raise to to consumer farms." doing these days ?

 

[jon f mn]

How the small to mid - size ,local, " raise to to consumer farms." doing these days ?

Im doing well with this. I sell about 30 fat hogs for butcher and 60-100 feeder pigs. I also sell 10-12 butcher cattle per year. I make good money on the hogs, right now the beef is close to what I can get at the sale barn. I dont breed any cattle as I have no pasture, just buy them and feed them. The last 2 years I've been buying cull dairy heifers, free martens, non breeders and first year calls and fattening those on corn and selling. Has been working well and customers are loving the meat. If prices on calves drop ill start buying those again.

 

[want@1070]

Im doing well with this. I sell about 30 fat hogs for butcher and 60-100 feeder pigs. I also sell 10-12 butcher cattle per year. I make good money on the hogs, right now the beef is close to what I can get at the sale barn. I dont breed any cattle as I have no pasture, just buy them and feed them. The last 2 years I've been buying cull dairy heifers, free martens, non breeders and first year calls and fattening those on corn and selling. Has been working well and customers are loving the meat. If prices on calves drop ill start buying those again.

Best of Luck to You

 

[flying belgian]

Had to look that up. Et roule face aux aléas" is a French expression signifying resilience, encouraging one to keep moving forward despite life's unexpected challenges. It promotes maintaining progress and embracing uncertainty with a determined, go-with-the-flow attitude.

Pa always said it like this…. Just keep putting one foot in front of the other.

 

[paul]

There has been a lot of regulation in the cattle business the past few decades.

Manure plans.

Barn regulations.

Medication regulations. (Antibiotics especially as one poster mentioned of days gone by.)

Welfare inspections.

Some states more than others.

Needed or not for better or worse, these things make raising a few beef more costly, more difficult. The little guy with a few head has a more difficult time in many places. Is your old barn too close to a wetlands, can you store a small pile of manure, do you have a manure plan, what do you do with a sick animal. It’s a lot different now that it was 50 years ago.

We are regulated into the big feedlots that can afford the overhead of all this.

more and more so.

Anyhow, I think the future of beef looks pretty good for now, but we all know the beef industry is a roller coaster ride, and we are on the highest hill we have ever seen, some day we know the crest shows up and it’s a faster ride down that it was up. That IS the beef industry. Always has been.

Paul

 

[rrlund]

There has been a lot of regulation in the cattle business the past few decades.

Manure plans.

Barn regulations.

Medication regulations. (Antibiotics especially as one poster mentioned of days gone by.)

Welfare inspections.

Some states more than others.

Needed or not for better or worse, these things make raising a few beef more costly, more difficult. The little guy with a few head has a more difficult time in many places. Is your old barn too close to a wetlands, can you store a small pile of manure, do you have a manure plan, what do you do with a sick animal. It’s a lot different now that it was 50 years ago.

We are regulated into the big feedlots that can afford the overhead of all this.

more and more so.

Anyhow, I think the future of beef looks pretty good for now, but we all know the beef industry is a roller coaster ride, and we are on the highest hill we have ever seen, some day we know the crest shows up and it’s a faster ride down that it was up. That IS the beef industry. Always has been.

Paul

I wonder which part of the chain you're talking about. Except for the antibiotics, I don't see a whole lot there that pertains to cow/calf? Do you have any cattle Paul?

 

[Texasmark]

EFV brings up a very good point, pointing to a Catch 22 for the beef industry and possibly to a big shakeup for the industry.

- The cost of replacement heifers is too high to make rebuilding the cattle herd size profitable, so herd size will most likely continue to decrease for more years until the price of replacement heifers drops substantially.

- The price of replacement heifers will not drop until the price of consumer beef drops substantially.

- Consumer beef prices will not drop until either the beef herd size increases substantially (unlikely) or demand for beef drops substantially.

Without intervention, the beef market cannot correct itself until the consumer demand for beef falls faster than the beef herd continues to shrink.

How much will the industry shrink before prices stabilize: 10; 25; 50 percent? What does that mean for the future of the beef industry and for small scale beef producers? Will the beef industry follow the pork, poultry and dairy industries where larger producers control the genetics and smaller producers raise animals on contract? Will US consumer tastes eventually return to beef or will consumer tastes permanently shift towards pork, poultry and maybe to the newly expanding mutton and goat market (Agri-Voltics)?

What are the beef industry insiders hearing? Your thoughts?

Seen any "fast food" commercials lately? It's obvious they are substituting something that "clucks" for something that "moos".....So this is good for both worlds...helps to keep food (prices) within reach of their customers....keeping their doors open....and reducing the red meat consumption helping the beef problem here.

 

[TheBartman47]

Seen any "fast food" commercials lately? It's obvious they are substituting something that "clucks" for something that "moos".....So this is good for both worlds...helps to keep food (prices) within reach of their customers....keeping their doors open....and reducing the red meat consumption helping the beef problem here.

Yep...

 

[rrlund]

Yep...

I'm not sure you guys aren't just more conscious of it.

 

[TheBartman47]

I'm not sure you guys aren't just more conscious of it.

Back in the 1980s, there was a push for more pork instead of cow or chicken. Everything goes in cycles.

 

[john in la]

Its natural for someone to promote their product.

 

[TheBartman47]

In the 1990s the big advertisements were for beef... just pointing out it goes in cycles, waves, not that any one particular product replaces all others, not even for a time, but rather simply a slightly higher market share percentage that changes over time.