Fall cattle prices

[farmersamm]

I remember going to an auction in the 80s and the Sheriff's car was sitting in the driveway. The auctioneer was a well known guy, had two or three auctions a week for several years there. He made an announcement that the sale would go on but the owner wouldn't be out to answer any questions. He was kind of talking in code, telling us that the owner had some business in the house with the sheriff and that if you bought something and pay for it, you own it, but he advised us to get things out of there immediately after the auction and not to leave anything there. So ya, most of those guys didn't want to quit back then. I used to hear a lot of stories like that from guys who went out and hauled reposessed equipment to a central location to be auctioned off. There was a sale over by the west county line that I didn't make it to. A neighbor who was there told me that a State Police officer ended up leading the owner there away in handcuffs during the sale.

The sad overarching thing.......................IT WAS THE BANKS BACK THEN. Selling loans on inflated asset values(collateral) . Get them to sign, then come in and foreclose. This has a very close resemblance to the bank behavior during the Dirty Thirties.

 

[rrlund]

The sad overarching thing.......................IT WAS THE BANKS BACK THEN. Selling loans on inflated asset values(collateral) . Get them to sign, then come in and foreclose. This has a very close resemblance to the bank behavior during the Dirty Thirties.

Last time something similar to this happened for a similar reason was January 4 1980. We were just going through life, doing our own thing, minding our own business and we were broadsides by a drunk driver. Any of you don't know what I'm talking about, look that one up and see. We all forgave him and forgot about that didn't we? Just search "what happened to farmers on January 4 1980".

 

[john in la]

I own a lumber supply on the gulf coast
A hurricane is coming and you need OSB to board up your windows.
Would it be ethical for me to charge $50 for a $15 piece of OSB just because it is in short supply ?????
I'm only making some extra money so what is the problem.

 

[rrlund]

I own a lumber supply on the gulf coast
A hurricane is coming and you need OSB to board up your windows.
Would it be ethical for me to charge $50 for a $15 piece of OSB just because it is in short supply ?????
I'm only making some extra money so what is the problem.

You sell retail, you do understand that we don't right? If we had the ability to raise prices to whatever we wanted, do you think we'd be having this discussion? Maybe you don't understand that, I don't know. Do you honestly want a government managed economy? REALLY? Is that who you are? I'll bet you'd claim to be the polar opposite every minute of every day.

 

[EFV]

Last time something similar to this happened for a similar reason was January 4 1980. We were just going through life, doing our own thing, minding our own business and we were broadsides by a drunk driver. Any of you don't know what I'm talking about, look that one up and see. We all forgave him and forgot about that didn't we? Just search "what happened to farmers on January 4 1980".

Worse, that drunk driver was a peanut farmer. And who out there forgave him ?

 

[joeysmith]

I get that its a chit sandwich with no choice in eating it or not.
But all these examples posted make me wonder why nobody prepared while the times have been good the last few years.

Had to know it was not going to last

And I get a lot of this is venting just another way to look at it that has not been mentioned.

Personally prefer it would not have happened

 

[farmersamm]

Worse, that drunk driver was a peanut farmer. And who out there forgave him ?

The Great Malaise was caused by uncontrollable world events, not like what we're seeing now.

 

[farmersamm]

I get that its a chit sandwich with no choice in eating it or not.
But all these examples posted make me wonder why nobody prepared while the times have been good the last few years.

Had to know it was not going to last

And I get a lot of this is venting just another way to look at it that has not been mentioned.

Personally prefer it would not have happened

I run a very nice stock book. Very nice. I get regular returns.

I don't hedge, I buy what I think has durability in the face of chaos.

BUT ON ANY GIVEN DAY, OR YEAR, I COULD FACE A BLACK SWAN EVENT................REDUCING THE VALUE OF MY PORTFOLIO. Despite how I thought I had made allowances for those events. It's the human condition.

Stuff happens. But, if it's an artificial event................all bets are off. We have gone beyond free markets here......we're in No-Man's-Land

 

[john in la]

You sell retail, you do understand that we don't right? If we had the ability to raise prices to whatever we wanted, do you think we'd be having this discussion? Maybe you don't understand that, I don't know. Do you honestly want a government managed economy? REALLY? Is that who you are? I'll bet you'd claim to be the polar opposite every minute of every day.

This all started a few years ago with the major drought and the massive sell off of cattle.
Count yourself lucky if it didn’t affect you.
Then the border was closed for imported cows and by a government mandated situation you experienced the perfect storm as cattle prices skyrocketed allowing you to make record profits. So who is in favor of a government manipulated economy here.

Now that the government is starting to reopen the border and bring things back to normal you are upset because your manipulated prices are going by by.

 

[farmersamm]

This all started a few years ago with the major drought and the massive sell off of cattle.
Count yourself lucky if it didn’t affect you.
Then the border was closed for imported cows and by a government mandated situation you experienced the perfect storm as cattle prices skyrocketed allowing you to make record profits. So who is in favor of a government manipulated economy here.

Now that the government is starting to reopen the border and bring things back to normal you are upset because your manipulated prices are going by by.

The reason the border was closed was New World Screw Worm. Something that could devastate a huge portion of the herd in the Southern United States...........which includes Texas, and Oklahoma..........home of an inordinately large number of cattle that eventually find their way to your dinner table. Imagine how expensive beef would be if that happened.

Which has been totally ignored in the last month, or so. Those cattle from Mexico, are once again making their way North............Per USDA policy.

 

[joeysmith]

So what's anyone that cares to chime in advice to someone that has the land/facilities/hay for a half dozen or so head
Good point to hop back in or stay away?

 

[rrlund]

I get that its a chit sandwich with no choice in eating it or not.
But all these examples posted make me wonder why nobody prepared while the times have been good the last few years.

Had to know it was not going to last

And I get a lot of this is venting just another way to look at it that has not been mentioned.

Personally prefer it would not have happened

We did prepare. What we're trying to tell the rest of you is this, we have money in the bank. We're aging out. We're not going to spend the money we made over the last six years to keep going, waiting for another profitable market. We're tired, we have money and we don't have to or want to do this if this is how it's going to be.

Land prices are so high, it's staggering for us to look at our own financial statements. You guys don't want our land developed, you don't want solar panels on it, you don't want windmills on it. You want us to own it, pay taxes on it and farm it, but not make a decent respectable living off of it. NO! The answer is ABSOLUTELY NO! Get out of the way and let us make a living off of it or live with the consequences.

We're trying to warn you about how much worse off you'll all be a few years down the road if you want to eat beef. Support what happened to us. Support how we were betrayed.. Go ahead if you want to pay $15 a pound for dry, tasteless foreign beef because the good domestic stuff will be $25. This won't increase US cattle numbers. You can choose not to believe us if you want to, but that's how it's going to be. I don't know what you do for a living, but if you gave me advice about it, and it was a business that I knew absolutely nothing about, I'd listen to what you were saying.

 

[farmersamm]

I mean.............this is silly...................but how does it differ from the ongoing fear that AI is going to make vast swaths of people unemployed. I'd bet the farm that this would garner more attention than the things going on in the cattle market.

 

[rrlund]

So what's anyone that cares to chime in advice to someone that has the land/facilities/hay for a half dozen or so head
Good point to hop back in or stay away?

If you've got a good day job so you can afford an expensive hobby, go ahead. Everybody has one.

 

[farmersamm]

So what's anyone that cares to chime in advice to someone that has the land/facilities/hay for a half dozen or so head
Good point to hop back in or stay away?

Like anything else.................buy low, sell high. Now is not the time to buy cattle. If the market tanks................as most markets are cylical........you'll be left holding the bag. Patience. Unless you want to run some cows regardless.

 

[farmersamm]

This holds true for commodities............which cattle are.

 

[joeysmith]

We did prepare. What we're trying to tell the rest of you is this, we have money in the bank. We're aging out. We're not going to spend the money we made over the last six years to keep going, waiting for another profitable market. We're tired, we have money and we don't have to or want to do this if this is how it's going to be.

Land prices are so high, it's staggering for us to look at our own financial statements. You guys don't want our land developed, you don't want solar panels on it, you don't want windmills on it. You want us to own it, pay taxes on it and farm it, but not make a decent respectable living off of it. NO! The answer is ABSOLUTELY NO! Get out of the way and let us make a living off of it or live with the consequences.

We're trying to warn you about how much worse off you'll all be a few years down the road if you want to eat beef. Support what happened to us. Support how we were betrayed.. Go ahead if you want to pay $15 a pound for dry, tasteless foreign beef because the good domestic stuff will be $25. This won't increase US cattle numbers. You can choose not to believe us if you want to, but that's how it's going to be. I don't know what you do for a living, but if you gave me advice about it, and it was a business that I knew absolutely nothing about, I'd listen to what you were saying.

Na I totally get it an am on "your side"
Just posting the flip side to see the response as I am curious about them

 

[john in la]

The reason the border was closed was New World Screw Worm. Something that could devastate a huge portion of the herd in the Southern United States...........which includes Texas, and Oklahoma..........home of an inordinately large number of cattle that eventually find their way to your dinner table. Imagine how expensive beef would be if that happened.

Which has been totally ignored in the last month, or so. Those cattle from Mexico, are once again making their way North............Per USDA policy.

Yes the government closed the border because of the screw worm.
From what I have been hearing the fever tick might be the next scare if it keeps getting past the quarantine zone.

 

[rrlund]

Na I totally get it an am on "your side"
Just posting the flip side to see the response as I am curious about them

If anybody else had done this to us, they'd see what we're talking about. Given why, they NEVER will admit to seeing our side. This isn't due to normal market forces, but then again, they know that.

 

[joeysmith]

If anybody else had done this to us, they'd see what we're talking about. Given why, they NEVER will admit to seeing our side. This isn't due to normal market forces, but then again, they know that.

I appreciate the response
Hesitated posting that but was genuinely curious what the calm an collected responses would be