Fall cattle prices

[mechanicfred]

At current prices it's very risky to retain heifers to rebuild herd. Herd size small but cattle on feed still adequate/high.
Besides imports the dairy industry has become VERY fond of Angus/Holstein cross calves. Dairy barn expansion is
being paid for cash money from calves that used to sell for $100-150 now bringing $1100-1600+. Dairy herd is almost
10 million head now, providing feeder cattle that never existed years ago , and adding 5-8 million mama cows to
realistic beef numbers. The virus that can't be mentioned made people aware of smaller local supplies which taste
good(better) enough to support price level . Until a disruptive force affects this market Laissez les bons temps rouler !!

And dairy farmers I know are breeding their herds to about 70% sexed semen angus bull beef calves.

 

[rrlund]

And dairy farmers I know are breeding their herds to about 70% sexed semen angus bull beef calves.

Yep, and those calves have crashed about the most. $500 to $1000 lower Monday. Hope your milk check is good.

 

[Moline_guy]

The cattle guys in our area used these last few years to make some genetics, facility and equipment improvements. By no means are there extravagant purchases being made, i dont call updating 40 year old equipment to 30 year old equipment living a lavish lifestyle. I feel beef prices in the store are still a good deal compared to everything else people blow money on. I still use a flip phone, makes my head spin watching people stare at there freaking phones all day even going down the highway. Vehicles lined up around the block to get a 12 dollar coffee, what is that all about and all the while sitting in a 90,000 suv, people have flat out lost there mind.

 

[moresmoke]

The cattle guys in our area used these last few years to make some genetics, facility and equipment improvements. By no means are there extravagant purchases being made, i dont call updating 40 year old equipment to 30 year old equipment living a lavish lifestyle.

From somebody in the equipment business, the majority of new cattle equipment is bought with crop money.

 

[ss55]

This all started a few years ago with the major drought and the massive sell off of cattle.
Count yourself lucky if it didn’t affect you.
Then the border was closed for imported cows and by a government mandated situation you experienced the perfect storm as cattle prices skyrocketed allowing you to make record profits. So who is in favor of a government manipulated economy here.

Now that the government is starting to reopen the border and bring things back to normal you are upset because your manipulated prices are going by by.

Is anyone actually loosing money selling market cattle at these still near record high prices? I can understand that some of the Johnny Come Lately that way over paid for feeder cattle to the point where there is absolutely no profit left could still loose money. The same thing used to happen with over priced feeder pigs in the 1970s. But the farrow to finish operators and the feeder pig producers all made very good money in those markets. Today's stock cattlemen and the feedlots that forward contracted for feeders at reasonable prices should still be making some very good profits today too.

The consumers are now hearing a lot of multi-millionaire beef producers crying that their expected windfall on these record beef prices is only 90 percent or 50 percent of what they had hoped for. That does not play well to consumers who are now living from paycheck to paycheck.

I though the multiple beef packing plant closures this year was foretelling, beef packers do not expect the national beef herd to stop decreasing anytime soon. Labor Day holiday retail beef sales could be very interesting to watch. If consumers are walking away from expensive beef can beef packers continue paying record prices for market cattle? Packers might cut their bids to increase their margins on expected lower volumes of beef.

There is no risk of bringing in more screw worm problems by importing packaged beef, there is a big risk of worsening the screw worm problem by importing live cattle.

 

[Big massey]

.

 

[ss55]

So what's anyone that cares to chime in advice to someone that has the land/facilities/hay for a half dozen or so head
Good point to hop back in or stay away?

IMHO, it is never bad to lock in a solid profit even if it is not at the peak price. Gamble if you can afford it.

 

[ss55]

IMHO, it is never bad to lock in a solid profit even if it is not at the peak price. Gamble if you can afford it.

In other words, if they were mine I would sell the feeders now if you can lock in a profit rather than feed them out to market weight or buy any more head. Market cattle prices seem to be starting to drop for multiple reasons including falling demand, foreign supply and increasing packer margins.

 

[ss55]

And dairy farmers I know are breeding their herds to about 70% sexed semen angus bull beef calves.

Years earlier didn't dairies prefer sexing for dairy replacement heifer calves? How difficult or expensive would it be to return to that if the market for bull beef calves falls apart?

In the future could dairies still make extra profit sexing for something like 75 percent beef heifer calves from beef bulls to sell to sell as replacement heifers to beef producers and 20 percent dairy heifer calves from dairy bulls for their own replacement heifers?

 

[jon f mn]

So what's anyone that cares to chime in advice to someone that has the land/facilities/hay for a half dozen or so head
Good point to hop back in or stay away?

Stay away for now, prices are going to drop back to normal at some point. Or at least buy what you can pay for so when proces drop further you don't have debt to pay.

 

[rrlund]

Is anyone actually loosing money selling market cattle at these still near record high prices? I can understand that some of the Johnny Come Lately that way over paid for feeder cattle to the point where there is absolutely no profit left could still loose money. The same thing used to happen with over priced feeder pigs in the 1970s. But the farrow to finish operators and the feeder pig producers all made very good money in those markets. Today's stock cattlemen and the feedlots that forward contracted for feeders at reasonable prices should still be making some very good profits today too.

The consumers are now hearing a lot of multi-millionaire beef producers crying that their expected windfall on these record beef prices is only 90 percent or 50 percent of what they had hoped for. That does not play well to consumers who are now living from paycheck to paycheck.

I though the multiple beef packing plant closures this year was foretelling, beef packers do not expect the national beef herd to stop decreasing anytime soon. Labor Day holiday retail beef sales could be very interesting to watch. If consumers are walking away from expensive beef can beef packers continue paying record prices for market cattle? Packers might cut their bids to increase their margins on expected lower volumes of beef.

There is no risk of bringing in more screw worm problems by importing packaged beef, there is a big risk of worsening the screw worm problem by importing live cattle.

That all sounds so intelegent and well thought out doesn't it? It would if you and all of those who agree with you weren't such hypocrites. When is it OK to have money and own a lot of valuable real estate? When you wear a blue suit and fancy shoes instead of denim with sh ! t on your boots? Are you only a successful businessman when you've gotten your money from daddy and investors who you left holding the bag when you went bankrupt five times, not when you've done hard physical labor to earn it and paid off your banker?

Maybe you don't deserve it if the only boot lickers around you are calves instead of lackies and cult followers?

It's not just the financial blow out of a clear blue sky, it's the psycological blow of the betrayal. Now when people like some of you guys tell us what you really think of us, and act like we don't deserve anything we have? Do you have any idea what that does to a person's spirit? Most of us keep these cattle around and keep working for decades beyond where the rest of you soft handed little fairy princesses retire because you can make more money sitting home doing nothing. None of you guys ever had one ounce of sympathy for us when we didn't have two nickels to rub together because of actual supply and demand market issues. Now you drag us through the mud when we have some good years?

Let me tell all of you something. My wife likes to wear nice clothes and drive a nice car too. She's by God going to have that lifestyle even if means the cows are gone and there are solar panels covering that ground. Shooting your mouths off and telling us what you think of us was a big mistake if your goal was to make friends.

 

[72supr]

That makes my day rrlund. Nobody knows how this market is going to play out. They tried to wreck it a year ago and it came back stronger. In the middle of the last decade they gave us a good price and wrecked it then too. Dry conditions have some impact on the numbers but not near as much as $8.00 corn did. True cow men are getting older and the younger generation would rather sit in a tractor seat and look in the mailbox for their paycheck. All you that seem to have the answers for us that feed you wait till all you have to eat is imported meat. Then you’ll say, remember how good the beef used to be.

 

[EFV]

The Great Malaise was caused by uncontrollable world events, not like what we're seeing now.

I prefer to refer to the Great Malaise by his given name. James Earl Carter.

 

[cjunrau]

I don't think anyone cares how good the beef tastes. Most is used in hamburger and fast food. All tastes the same,,,,,,,, no it doesn't to you and me. But lots like the taste. I hate A&W burger. Just an over aged meat taste. I like to kill, cool and cut. My beef doesn't need 2 weeks or 4 to hang in a stinky cooler.

as far as the price of cattle. I love it right now and wish it would stay but I also know it won't last. Those who paid high to get in to farming or have had bad luck like me carry more dept than wee are worth. This cow price looked like I could get out of dept in 5-10 years. Not going to happen. I don't blame anyone for hacking on the farmer as a lot of them are buying up land at such outlandish prices that small guy can't get anything. the guy looking on the outside sees all the new trucks at ag days every year and says those farmers are rich. He sees how they always have nice vehicles, wife is all dolled up, go on vacation, etc. what do you expect people to think?

Me I have 10 beef cows and can not even think of buying nice stuff. I am going to be scraping the bottom of the barrel till I die. My brothers with 100-160 cows on the other hand made enough ion the last couple years they are dept free. Me I pay close to $1000 interest a month. Hard to make ends meet when the bank gets it all. Then the cost of everything goes up, can't get a good job where I live that pays more than $20 an hour. Even with class one license. I could sell out pay off all my dept and go trucking and live in town, but that isn't for me. I would rather stay the way I am. Nobody makes a farmer stay, he does it to himself.

 

[moresmoke]

That makes my day rrlund. Nobody knows how this market is going to play out. They tried to wreck it a year ago and it came back stronger. In the middle of the last decade they gave us a good price and wrecked it then too. Dry conditions have some impact on the numbers but not near as much as $8.00 corn did. True cow men are getting older and the younger generation would rather sit in a tractor seat and look in the mailbox for their paycheck. All you that seem to have the answers for us that feed you wait till all you have to eat is imported meat. Then you’ll say, remember how good the beef used to be.

There s no shortage of young people that want to farm or ranch. The bottom line is there are very few young people that have access to the capital needed to get started.

I work on the equipment side of the industry. One of my dealers bought the operation from his father about 30 years ago for 1.5 million. Today, his son is looking at $32 million to take over. And this is not a large operation by any means.

I don’t know about you, but if I had access to that kind of capital, I’d just retire.

 

[jhwis]

This all started a few years ago with the major drought and the massive sell off of cattle.
Count yourself lucky if it didn’t affect you.
Then the border was closed for imported cows and by a government mandated situation you experienced the perfect storm as cattle prices skyrocketed allowing you to make record profits. So who is in favor of a government manipulated economy here.

Now that the government is starting to reopen the border and bring things back to normal you are upset because your manipulated prices are going by by.

The high market established itself the last couple of years because of supply and demand. Government involvement had little to do with it. The banning of Mexican beef was coincidental. Did it help....sure. Also, don't confuse record prices with record profits. They don't go hand in hand.

 

[john in la]

Guy up the road quit running cows across the scale. Sells everything wrapped in paper now.
T Bone $25 lb
Ground Beef $9 lb
And he ain’t got an angus cow on his place.

Another guy closer to town that use to have a dairy is selling brangus ground beef for $11 lb.

Walmart 80% ground beef is over $7 a lb.

If you ain’t making money raising cows today you just as soon find something else to do.

 

[rrlund]

I prefer to refer to the Great Malaise by his given name. James Earl Carter.

Not that it really matters, but for the record, his name was Jimmy, not James. But ya, when the government is keeping a misery index, things are pretty rough.

 

[cjunrau]

Guy up the road quit running cows across the scale. Sells everything wrapped in paper now.
T Bone $25 lb
Ground Beef $9 lb
And he ain’t got an angus cow on his place.

Another guy closer to town that use to have a dairy is selling brangus ground beef for $11 lb.

Walmart 80% ground beef is over $7 a lb.

If you ain’t making money raising cows today you just as soon find something else to do.

What you are talking about are niche markets. If every farmer around started doing that none would make money. Much the same as the corn on the side of the highway. When one guy was doing it local he was making 40 thousand a year. 3 or 4 more guys jumped in to get some cash. 3 years later they all quit because there overhead was to high for what they sold. You split 40 thousand between 4 guys is only 10 each. Can’t sell more local for inflated prices no matter how many people do it. I sell butter off the farm for $8 a lbs.
Walmart sells for $5.50. Only 15-20 people will buy my butter. If someone else jumps in and sells the same for less money I will quit because I can’t loose the customers I have or it’s not worth it.
It always amazes me at how a small amount of people will pay double the price thinking it is a better product because it is local and fed differently or better.
The local feed lot sells farm raised beef local and it’s a huge feedlot. Gets fed just like all the stuff you buy in the store.

What I would like to see is our local butcher shops should be able to sell to the stores in all the towns, cities. Walmart should be able to fill its coolers with local beef. Not trucked from 5000 or more miles away.
Same as there vegetables.

 

[moresmoke]

It always amazes me at how a small amount of people will pay double the price thinking it is a better product because it is local and fed differently or better.
The local feed lot sells farm raised beef local and it’s a huge feedlot. Gets fed just like all the stuff you buy in the store.

Do I save money buying local? No, but the product is fresh. Couple local processors that sell over the counter under state inspection. Big difference is that the money spent there makes 5-7 turns in the local economy. Buy from Walmart and maybe 10% stays local, the rest is extracted from our local economy.