Corn Prices???

[RichG]

So any ideas where corn prices are headed. Finally got the crop in at 173 bushels per acre at 19.5%. Afer drying around 162 bushels per acre in northern MN. In our soil that is a great year. But market now barely covers the input cost. What are your ideas on where it is going? I think I will just put mine in storage and wait.

 

[IaGary]

I don't see much up in the market.

There are more reasons for corn to go down than up at this point.

Now if crude oil would takeoff and go back up then maybe there would be an uptrend in the grain markets.

Just my opinion. Do not make your marketing decisions base on my knowledge. ~})

Gary

 

[billonthefarm]

I got a couple of thoughts. The market always over reacts. It went to $7 and it shouldnt have and it will go down over reacting to the bad economic news. How low, that is a good question. Fundamentally things are ok. World wide demand is holding. The cheap dollar helps the exports. Ocean going freight has dropped like a rock. The credit crunch is hitting hard is south america and their expected plantings are down, sounds like some acres may sit idle. I think there will be lots of reason for guys to move away from corn acres next year. High priced inputs, hard to get credit, lack of getting the work done this fall to plant continuous corn, and the market might try to buy some bean acres. I tend to be a optimist. I think there is alot of room to move back up next spring and summer. Only time will tell.
bill

 

[Anonymous-0]

I took the money and ran this year for the corn beyond my contracts. I keep hearing store store store which tells me sell sell sell. Poke around and look at the Ethanol plants going bankrupt due to the high corn price. Things are just too out of whack right now.

It just depends on how long this down turn lasts, but a bird in hand is worth two in a bush with this current economy.

 

[paul]

With fert & seed & chemical & land prices: Normal signals say corn should go back up in winter. No one willplant corn at these prices, and shortage in 2010 if we don't plant any in 2009. Buyers will need to bid up prices to buy a crop.

However, these are not normal times. Not sure any buyers will be around this winter. A case can bemade for corn dropping lower & staying there.

This would set up some interesting times for 2010....

--->Paul

 

[Anonymous-0]

Only short term hope may be basis improvement. But until the overall negative market psycology improves I don't think we'll see much improvement. Like most marketing people will offer the disclaimer that there is always risk in trading. I guess I am glad I sold earlier rather buying a grain bin to store.

 

[Dave from MN]

I was gonna dump mine all at the co op it is stored at, but I am leaning more and more to buying a few more feeders while they are cheap and converting my corn into prime angus beef to sell next year.

 

[bradley martin]

It is very difficult to see much that will cause the markets to significantly rebound in the near future. The credit crisis is gripping both domestic and foreign buyers. Sellers won't ship product w/o a firm guarantee of funds. Some buyers are renegging on contracts. Trust and confidence is breaking down. Some of the speciality niche markets, like dry beans, have totally collapsed. Some of the big multinationals have significant exposure to some of that"funny" Wall Street paper. Personally, I became very concerned by late summer and aggressively priced all of '08 and 2/3 of '09 production...looks good now.

BUT, I am usually wrong so , given that, maybe you should be holding. The fact is...NOBODY knows for sure and you have to use your best judgment and live w/ the results. In life, we win some and we loose some. Good luck!!

 

[bradk]

Storage is wise.We're not giving our away.Break even on input is said to be around $4.50 in our area(SE MN).It'll come back.

 

[jogl]

Over the next little while looks bad. After that there are reasons for hope, as noted. But that is coming from a die hard optimist.

JP.

 

[IaGary]

A lot of you are more optomistic than I am I see.

I will say this.

Corn will not top $4.00 till oil gets back above $80 a barrel.

Corn will not go back uptill oil does.

Gary

 

[TripleRange]

two questions come to mind. The price of oil went from $150/barrel to $50/barrel. Is $50 the bottom? Corn is following oil, right? Gotta go up...OPEC isn't going to let it drop any farther ;-)