Market question

[Mcrafty1]

I'm not now nor have I ever been a commercial farmer...but I do watch many on Youtube, When it comes to farming I think Patrick Shivers, a south Ga. farmer has a good feel for where the money is going in farming. He lays it out quite well when he say the commodity price goes up/ the input price follows it/ the price drops/ the input price drops less if at all and it goes along like that. Short answer is the middle man will take most if not all of the increases with the cost of material to raise the crop. The end user is paying a fair amount for the product....it just never makes it down to the people actually producing the commodity....I believe he terms it corporate greed.

 

[john in la]

I’m still trying to figure out what country grew an extra 4 billion bushels of soybeans this year that no one needs our soybeans.

 

[wheat straw]

How do you fix agriculture? Everything we do takes long term investment. Land, purchased or leased reaches out into the unpredictable Future. Our ability to produce is at the same time a curse and a blessing. Our problem is overproduction, but how do we decide who drops out and who stays in. When farmers sell their land to investors and lease it back it just seems upside down. It'll fry your brain if you dwell on it to long!

 

[paul]

Same here, we used to have the ‘news and/ or weather’ on as background all the time. Now we don’t even watch the local news any more, look at an app to see the radar and 7 day forecast and we are happy.

China and other grain importers got shook when the late 1960s administration did a grain embargo, and they really started looking elsewhere when a late 1970s administration also did an embargo. This goes back a lot farther than 10 years……

The war in Ukraine oddly has lowered grain prices as well. Initially the reaction was there would be no grain coming from that region and prices shot up. But as always, both sides of that conflict need cash to run their wars and end up sort of having a fire sale on grains, exporting as much as they can to raise money.

If you listen to the grain marketing experts, if we gain or lose 5-6 bu of average bean production in the USA, we swing from a surplus to ‘tight ending stocks’ and the grain prices do their thing, down or up to balance demand with production. Unfortunately it takes a year to change our supplies, so the prices are often a roller coaster ride. That is farming, and the system does work, so I hope we don’t mess with it too much. Weather is still the driving force of farming, price swings is what keeps our supplies adequate in the USA. If we mess with fixed prices too much, we will end up with shortages.

As an old farmer, I accept the price swings. I really don’t want to see shortages in this country.

Paul

 

[NoDakInMN]

Overall, it's good news. But the real truth is that the market responds to more than just one factor like this. Take China for instance. Even if they do import the full amount that they previously had, that doesn't guarantee a return to previous market levels as they import something like 100 million tons of soybeans and they have been investing in shipping infrastructure in Brazil, which has multiple growing seasons each year, so that is going to affect the market in the years ahead. Further, China has a declining population which likely means their need for soybeans is going to decline, which will also exert its own pressures on the market.

Now that's just one segment of the soybean market, there are lots of others and each of them is in a constant state of change. So you cannot simply look at just one segment of it and confidently say that a change there will alone dictate how the market will respond as there are far too many other factors in play at the same time that also need to be taken into consideration.

 

[rrlund]

.

 

[showcrop]

I heard on the news yesterday that a lot of growers pulled back from beans this year and planted more corn, and that corn is now going to be a tougher proposition than beans.

 

[flying belgian]

I’m still trying to figure out what country grew an extra 4 billion bushels of soybeans this year that no one needs our soybeans.

Someone is going to need them. Patients man, patients.

 

[jddrawbar]

Was this announcement from the same guy who ended the war between Israel and Gaza? Yep....100% trustworthy . I wouldn't bet on soybeans going to China until the ship unloads there and the check clears the bank.

Yes I think so, same guy that closed the open border!!

 

[paul]

Locally, I grew the best soybeans I’ve ever grown. Rumor is the elevator used different, bigger bins to hold a few more beans this year. That takes away from corn storage of course…

Locally, the elevators are filled up, some corn on the ground, waiting lines to unload corn. The local elevator had to close a few hours early several days when trucking wasn’t keeping up to take corn to the ethanol plant. They were full, all wet holding bins, all big bins, all little overhead bins, full. The attached feed mill takes 20 semis of corn a day, their small holding bins were also full until morning grind began.

I know that can be balanced out by poor crops in other areas.

Paul

 

[moresmoke]

I’m still trying to figure out what country grew an extra 4 billion bushels of soybeans this year that no one needs our soybeans.

On the plus side, demand for chicken and pork should be up with the price of beef as high as it is. Poultry and hogs are the primary consumers of soy.

 

[grandpa Love]

Yes I think so, same guy that closed the open border!!

Closed the border? And yet we still get produce,and many other products from Mexico.....ain't closed too tight

 

[paul]

It’s too bad the screw fly is so invasive and into the Mexican herd, closing down feeder cattle coming from Mexico to the USA. That is disrupting to beef, feed grains, rangeland ranchers, and of course beef consumers.

Hope that fly gets back under control again, but it sounds like it will be a multi year slog to get them eradicated.

We sure don’t want that fly back in the States again!

We do export a fair amount of grains to Mexico, perhaps a few more if they are feeding their own cattle now that they can’t send them up here?

Paul

 

[Mcrafty1]

Closed the border? And yet we still get produce,and many other products from Mexico.....ain't closed too tight

So you think it should be closed to not only illegal immigration but all trade? Interesting how does that work with the US produced products? We can't consume all we produce.

 

[grandpa Love]

So you think it should be closed to not only illegal immigration but all trade? Interesting how does that work with the US produced products? We can't consume all we produce.

Jddrawbar said it was closed,I called him out on that. It ain't closed. Too many products have to cross the border to close it. Someone fell for untrue propaganda.

 

[Mcrafty1]

Jddrawbar said it was closed,I called him out on that. It ain't closed. Too many products have to cross the border to close it. Someone fell for untrue propaganda.

Nobody ever said it would be closed to trade..nobody.

 

[MarkB_MI]

Jddrawbar said it was closed,I called him out on that. It ain't closed. Too many products have to cross the border to close it. Someone fell for untrue propaganda.

And packed along with the hundreds of tons of legitimate freight that crosses the border every day comes almost all the contraband entering the US. We're open for business!

 

[jddrawbar]

Jddrawbar said it was closed,I called him out on that. It ain't closed. Too many products have to cross the border to close it. Someone fell for untrue propaganda.

Come on Kevin, even you have to know I was referring to the illegals. Believe me, I'm trying to do my part to keep the site clean of political hit jobs, I would hope you do the same. I know where you stand & you know where I stand.....let's leave it alone.

 

[GermantownGreen]

And folks this is also why we don't have the cow herd that was of old days. Where I travel for work, use to be heavy cow calf territory, feeders, the whole thing, now is hilly and flatter bean fields and corn.
The coffee shop talk of rent to the moon, well that might just catch up with these BTO s.
And the big four packers got their dead swan event to break the cattle market right here before the fall winter runs of sales, but next spring you just watch out, they'll be the same high prices again, not enough cows to fill the demand! But yet boxed beef price still went up after the announcements, go figure!

We're trying to do our part to feed the world!
GG Wes

 

[grandpa Love]

Come on Kevin, even you have to know I was referring to the illegals. Believe me, I'm trying to do my part to keep the site clean of political hit jobs, I would hope you do the same. I know where you stand & you know where I stand.....let's leave it alone.

Fine..... moving on.....